Rally—Selloff—Rebound; Equity ETFs End Up Higher On Volatile Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Volatility took on a new meaning today, as the Dow raced to an immediate 260 point gain right after the open, then tanked during the mid-day session and actually dropped into negative territory, before a last hour rebound saved the day.

This type of market activity is clearly sign of confusion about the uncertain global economic outlook along with questionable news about the outcome of the European debt crisis.

Early enthusiasm about German lawmakers approving to expand the European Financial Stability Facility Fund (EFSF) drove global markets higher, but worries about the still overwhelming task at hand, including getting agreements from all 17 EU nations, took the starch out of the rally and down we went. According to reports, short covering may have played a role in aiding the last hour recovery.

Read More

New Posting Schedule

Ulli Market Review Contact

With equities not going anywhere and chances of a bear market increasing, I will adjust my posting schedule to better be in tune with the information you need. That means I will, for the time being, focus more on relevant market commentary, along with changes in our invested positions, which might help you to better see the big picture.

There is no sense in having you look at cutline reports when all you see are worsening momentum numbers and sliding M-Index rankings.

Last night, I reviewed the High Volume Cutline report and noticed that out of the 90 ETFs I track, only 5 of them were positioned above the cutline and therefore in bullish territory. However, all of them had worsening momentum numbers, which supports my opinion that, in the current environment, there is really no place to hide, and cash is a better option than a questionable ETF or mutual fund.

Read More

Another Afternoon Stumble—Equity ETFs Close AT Their Lows

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Sure, part of the slide could have been a result of continued profit taking from last week’s run up, but a part of it can attributed to fears about the progress, or lack thereof, of the European debt solution.

Volatility increased again, with the Dow trading in a 300 point range, while the markets remain stuck in the middle of their 2-month sideways pattern, which I discussed yesterday. Concerns about an economic slowdown in China did not help matters, as the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low for 2011, which gives it a loss YTD of -14.8%.

Still, most of the selling was Greece related, and the effect a default might have on the solvency of Europe’s banks.

There is much guesswork, but no one really has a specific answer as to the overall consequences on the various financial centers not only in Europe but around the world. The fear is that a default might occur in such a way that banks may not have enough time to prepare in order to withstand the shock.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 9/27/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Last week’s sharp selloff, especially in the precious metals, pushed our core holding, PRPFX, lower at almost the same rate as the S&P 500. We crossed the trend line to the downside and came off the high by more than 7% triggering the trailing sell stop. As posted, I liquidated about 50% of our holdings.

Yesterday’s rebound in the metals helped our cause again, but with reduced exposure. All model ETF portfolios lost.

Take a look at the latest numbers:

Read More

Late Selloff Cuts Into Early Gains—Europe Continues To Boost Global ETFs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

More of the same, as hopes for a financial rescue plan powered global ETFs higher, but a last hour selloff devoured more than half of the early gains.

Nevertheless, we closed up with gold and silver showing signs of life again after getting hammered last week. While the investing world remains on a bailout high, some reality set in late today when looking at the obstacles such a plan must overcome before it even can be implemented.

Talk abounds that this maybe the start of the fall rally, so the question is whether this rebound has legs or not. Remember, we have been stuck in a trading range of some 100 points for 2 months using the S&P 500 as an example. Every time we’ve reached the upper range, which we came close to today, a sharp selloff took the index back down to the lower end.

The Technical Indicator featured this daily S&P 500 chart, which clearly demonstrates the range we’ve been trading in:

Read More

Major Market ETFs Surge On Europe News—Another Head Fake?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Please note that Gold and Oil prices in above chart reflect the late session]

Nothing but hope provided the ammunition to drive this market out of the deep hole that was dug last week. Sure, after relentless selling, there is bound to be a dead cat bounce or a head fake similar to the one we saw the week prior.

The hope was that European regulators are designing a plan, or a crisis solution, to help stabilize the region via the expansion of a rescue fund and subsequent bond sales to provide the liquidity for banks to absorb the losses if and when Greece defaults.

While that was enough to soothe the markets, at least for one day, details emerged that, in order to raise enough funds to create a big enough bailout gun, leverage will have to be used. Some analysts likened this concept to the last hand in poker, as in “going all in.”

Read More