ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, January 20, 2012

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01192012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 20, 2012

MARKETS TEMPER TODAY, BUT IT’S A BULLISH WEEK FOR ETFS

After a few days of propelling ahead, markets finally took a breather with the S&P 500 barely finishing ahead at 0.07%. European indices slightly dipped while Asian indices had a strong day.

In commodities, gold is above $1,650 while oil finished below $100. Meanwhile, the Euro appreciated against the dollar this week, ending at $1.29/Euro.

And for the first time this year, the 10-year Treasury broke back above the 2% level. Although we certainly aren’t in risk off mode, it appears investors are getting the feeling that European sentiment is improving. There’s hope that Europe will pull it together, but it’s just hope.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/19/2012

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 19, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +3.80%. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Equity ETFs Keep Pushing Forward

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Markets were acting bullish once again with the S&P 500 gaining 0.49%. Some of the gains were likely attributed to positive earnings reports from financial institutions among others, and expectations that Greece might come to an agreement with bondholders. European and Asian markets rose as well.

An indication that investors don’t seem to be worried about Europe, the 10-year Treasury jumped up to a yield of 1.97%. Also, the Euro has risen back up to a level of $1.30/Euro, further echoing that sentiment.

In general, markets seem to be ignoring the recent European sovereign debt downgrades. Leading up to the crisis, investors placed their faith in optimistic ratings agency analyses that proved to be inaccurate. But now that ratings agencies are highlighting major Eurozone problems, investors don’t seem to care. However, I strongly believe the writing’s on the wall for Europe, and it’s not pretty.

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Markets Roar Ahead – Time For More Equity ETF Exposure?

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Markets appeared to be in risk off mode today as equities brought their bull horns out. The S&P 500 gained 1.11%. The NASDAQ also had a big day, gaining 1.53% to keep the tech rally going.

Also, the Euro bumped up to $1.29/dollar while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.90%. I think there’s still plenty of risk left on the table, but this has been a precarious January so far to say the least.

Some of this exuberance could warrant some additional equity exposure, which we’ve done to a small degree. Some sectors have done especially well this year such as materials and financials although whether this can continue is the big question.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 1/17/2012

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The S&P 500 barely budged since last week’s ETF Portfolio report, but all of our models increased in value due to their diversification.

The index is now approaching the psychologically important 1,300 level, which can act as a glass ceiling. It remains to be seen whether upward momentum is strong enough to pierce this resistance point in the face of Europe’s worsening debt crisis.

Some forecasters have called for a high of 1,330 to 1,350, but these things are simply someone’s opinion and not a guarantee. With Europe’s problems looming large, be sure to follow my recommended exit strategy at all times.

Take a look at the latest update:

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Major Market ETFs Return To Optimism

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Last week’s downgrades were forgotten as markets edged up today, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.36%. The optimism was seen across global indices while gold and oil prices pushed higher.

While global markets and commodities didn’t account for Europe’s troubles, the 10-year Treasury stood still at 1.85%. In the context of bond markets, investors continue to seek safer havens to store their assets, indicating perception of greater risk.

Elevated risk was seen in the form of the VIX, which rose 6.17% after a few weeks of relative inactivity. In essence, there’s still a lot of volatility in the market that can’t be ignored.

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