Morgan Stanley is predicting 3-4 percent earnings growth in 2016 and in 2017, said Adam Parker, chief US equity strategist and director of quantitative research at Morgan Stanley. If investors go out a year from now and pay 16 times for the earnings month 13 to 24, roughly the S&P should be at 2050. The S&P is currently trading 2-3 …
One Man’s Opinion: “I’m Not Really Sure How Much More Of This I Can Take”
Submitted by Albert Edwards via ZeroHedge Earlier this week we described the personal come to non-GAAP Jesus moment of trading commentator Richard Breslow, who confessed in no uncertain terms that he has had it with endless central banking intervention: “a portfolio built to only withstand stress thanks to central bank intervention is one destined to blow-up spectacularly. The embedded flaw in this new logic is …
One Man’s Opinion: Is There A Disconnect Between GDP Readings And Retail Sales Numbers?
US businesses are hiring people but are unable to get much extra output per hour of their work, and so income and sales are sluggish, said Vincent Reinhart of Standish Investment Management, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon. While unemployment rate has hit 4.9-5 percent rate, the gross domestic product reading doesn’t seem to corroborate the US jobs scenario. Asked to …
One Man’s Opinion: Is There A Disconnect Between Fed’s GDP Forecast And Equity Indices?
The VIX (volatility index) should be at 20 and the S&P 500 index should be at 1,970 said Julian Emanuel, US equity and derivatives executive director at UBS. Investors need to remind themselves that the current environment is different from the past 3 ½ years; it’s a high-volatility environment. The rubber band was stretched to the downside in February and …
One Man’s Opinion: Do Investors Need To Be Extra Cautious In The Months Ahead?
Bond investors need to think in a portfolio context and should not get in and out of bonds in trying to pick the bottoms from the tops, said Jeff Rosenberg, chief investment strategist for fixed income at BlackRock. The value of US Treasury securities act as a ballast and offsets the risky instruments in a portfolio that investors add for …
One Man’s Opinion: Is The Authenticity Of GDP Data Questionable?
While recent GDP readings have showed inconsistency repeatedly, investors should not ignore GDP readings totally, said IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh. But there are at least three different problems with the GDP data series. The first is seasonality; there are huge swings in seasonality – for instance the first-quarter data is almost always underestimated. The government doesn’t seem to know …