[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
After the bulls enjoyed a victory lap yesterday, the bears grabbed the microphone today and reminded everyone who’s still paying the bills.
Stocks sold off sharply as fresh concerns surfaced about the massive capital demands of the AI race, raising questions about how much spending investors are willing to fund before seeing meaningful returns.
Tech led the retreat. Meta sank despite strong revenue and upbeat guidance, while AMD, Micron, Nvidia, and CoreWeave all felt the pressure as investors grew uneasy about capital scarcity and rising credit risk.
It seems Wall Street is becoming a little less interested in AI dreams and a little more interested in AI profits.
Adding to the risk-off mood, oil prices jumped on renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran, while money flowed into bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back below 5%.
The Dow managed to stay upright, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq took a much harder hit. Even gold and Bitcoin failed to play hero, with both giving back ground.
The big takeaway? The AI story remains compelling, but with capital getting more selective, the market is starting to separate promising investments from expensive science projects.
Could this be the beginning of a healthier, more disciplined phase for AI-related stocks?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Other than the Dow, there really wasn’t much shelter in equities today.
Tech stocks took another trip to the woodshed, dragging Small Caps and the metals sector down with them.
Meanwhile, our TTIs went their separate ways: the international model mostly treaded water, while the domestic TTI ignored the gloomy mood, put its head down, and posted a solid gain.
In a market that seemed determined to hand out bruises, that was a welcome bright spot.
This is how we closed 10/22/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.87% above its M/A (prior close +5.10%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.88% above its M/A (prior close +3.99%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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