[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The Nasdaq pushed to another intraday record today, but the broader market mostly spun its wheels.
Oil continued to retreat on reports that Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, while Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing to restart its East-West pipeline. Neither development is a done deal, but it was enough to take some pressure off oil, stocks, and bond yields.
After yesterday’s strong rally, however, traders seemed content to catch their breath. The S&P 500 finished essentially unchanged, bond yields went nowhere, and the dollar took the scenic route before closing at its highest level since August.
Metals were more interesting. Gold climbed out of an early hole despite the stronger dollar, while silver and copper did even better. Bitcoin briefly touched $87,000 overnight before easing back, a well-deserved breather after its recent surge.
Bottom line: there was plenty of movement, but very little real direction. With the Trump-Xi summit approaching and Iran headlines still driving sentiment, traders remain glued to the news ticker.
Will the next headline finally give this market some direction, or just send us on another lap around the block?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Despite a little more volatility, the S&P 500 finished the day right where it started, while the Nasdaq managed to squeeze out a modest gain.
Metals shook off an early stumble, with copper and silver leading the comeback.
Our TTIs basically trod water, barely budging from yesterday’s close. In other words, plenty of motion today, but not much distance traveled.
This is how we closed 09/22/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.80% above its M/A (prior close +3.75%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.94% above its M/A (prior close +5.00%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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