[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks started the new month on the right foot after President Trump said planned strikes against Iran had been called off and that talks would resume.
The news took some geopolitical premium out of the market, sending oil prices sharply lower and giving investors a reason to put risk assets back in their shopping carts.
Crude took the biggest hit, with Brent falling nearly 6%, while bond yields also eased as inflation worries cooled a bit.
Gold and the dollar were content to tread water, and Bitcoin bounced back above $64,000, proving once again that it rarely likes being left out of the conversation.
That said, traders aren’t exactly breaking out the champagne. We’ve seen a few of these “all clear” signals before, only to discover the story wasn’t over.
For now, markets are enjoying the relief rally, but the bigger test may come later this week as investors digest a full slate of labor data, culminating in Friday’s payrolls report.
With earnings season fading into the background, the spotlight shifts back to rates, inflation, and growth, along with the age-old question: will bond market volatility rattle stocks again, or is this time really different?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Positive Middle East headlines gave the bulls a reason to charge out of the gate today, and they rarely looked back. The major indexes posted a strong session, with the Nasdaq leading the parade and tacking on more than 2%.
The broad market joined the party, although the metals crowd seemed content to sip their drinks rather than dance on the tables.
Our TTIs also enjoyed the favorable backdrop, with the domestic model showing a bit more spring in its step than its international cousin.
All in all, it was one of those days when investors were happy to find fewer worries on the menu and a little more optimism.
This is how we closed 08/03/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.86% above its M/A (prior close +7.81%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.40% above its M/A (prior close +7.12%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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