- Moving the market
The S&P 500 spent most of the session hovering near unchanged, while oil prices kept pushing higher amid an ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. With energy prices climbing, traders stayed cautious heading into a packed stretch of catalysts.
Markets were also focused on what could be Jerome Powell’s final policy meeting as Federal Reserve chair, along with earnings from four members of the “Magnificent Seven.”
Expectations were low for any rate changes, but high for guidance—especially given how much uncertainty is tied to inflation and geopolitics right now.
Oil continued its climb after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has asked aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped another 4%, pushing back above $104 per barrel. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil flows, remains a major concern and keeps upward pressure on energy prices.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady. However, Powell struck a hawkish tone in his press conference, warning that “the effects of oil‑related inflation are still in front of us.” Mixed macro data didn’t help ease concerns, leaving markets stuck in neutral.
By the close, oil surged, bond yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.
Gold and Bitcoin both headed lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished essentially flat—another day of plenty of motion beneath the surface, but little progress overall.
Elevated energy prices seem likely to stick around longer than hoped. That said, with the UAE exiting OPEC, could shifting supply dynamics eventually open the door for a reversal in oil prices—or are higher energy costs here to stay?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
A negative tone set in right from the opening bell, with the major indexes sliding for most of the session.
By the close, only the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back near unchanged, while the rest of the market remained under pressure.
Metals and Bitcoin extended their recent slide, and our TTIs wobbled along as well, finishing the day with only minor changes — another sign that markets are drifting rather than making a decisive move.
This is how we closed 04/29/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.66% above its M/A (prior close +4.85%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.12% above its M/A (prior close +7.21%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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