- Moving the market
The day started wobbly—Nasdaq was down early after a report that Meta might drop billions on Google’s custom AI chips instead of Nvidia’s (Nvidia promptly got smacked -5%, Alphabet +1%, classic zero-sum AI drama).
But the afternoon turned into a full-on comeback: everything flipped green, and we closed with solid gains across the board.
The bounce was legit broad this time—Mag 7 lagged while the other 493 S&P names and small caps stole the show (short squeeze helped there too).
Macro data was straight-up ugly—weak ADP jobs, trash retail sales, cooling housing, lousy consumer confidence—but in this market, “bad news = good news” because it cranks December rate-cut odds even higher (now north of 80% after John Williams’ dovish comments Friday).
That sent the 10-year yield below 4%, the dollar lower, and gave stocks the perfect excuse to rally.
Bitcoin slipped a bit, gold teased $4,160 then chilled—funny how gold feels rock-solid on liquidity while BTC’s acting like the nervous cousin right now.
With ugly data juicing rate-cut hopes and breadth finally showing up, could this be the spark for a legit year-end melt-up, or does the “sell the news” vibe still feel stronger?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
We kicked off looking a little shaky, but once the buyers stepped in, things turned around fast.
By the close, all the major indexes were sitting pretty with good, solid gains. The Nasdaq played hard-to-get early (started in a decent hole), but even it crawled out and finished strong.
Best part? This wasn’t another Mag-7 rescue mission. The bounce was legit broad-based—small caps, cyclicals, financials, the whole gang showed up.
That gave our TTIs a nice lift, and today the domestic TTI was straight-up the star of the show.
This is how we closed 11/25/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.32% above its M/A (prior close +3.84%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.60% above its M/A (prior close +7.61%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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