- Moving the market
It was a pretty uneventful Monday on Wall Street as the major indexes mostly hovered near the flat line. After a strong run last week, traders seemed content to take a breather while they wait for some big retail earnings, updates on Ukraine, and—most of all—a speech from Fed Chair Powell later this week.
All eyes are on results from retail heavyweights like Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target. These reports are expected to provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. consumer.
There’s also plenty of Fed-watching going on, as central bankers head to Jackson Hole for their big annual meetup. Traders are looking for any clues about what’s next for interest rates, and the odds of a rate cut at the September meeting are now hovering around 85%.
The indexes are coming off two solid weeks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up in four of the last five weeks. Small caps stole the show last week as traders kept betting on a friendlier Fed.
On the housing front, homebuyer confidence remains stuck at rock-bottom, and homebuilder sentiment just dropped to lows not seen since the early days of the pandemic. Despite that, homebuilders still seem to be in a better spot than the buyers themselves, at least for now.
Today’s short squeeze mostly gave a lift to small caps. Bond yields ticked up a bit, the dollar bounced off Friday’s dip, and gold slipped just a hair. Bitcoin, which smashed through $124,000 last week, cooled off but built a solid base around the $116,000 mark.
With the final weeks of summer here and traders glued to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday, will markets stay in cruise control, or are we in for a surprise as the headlines roll in?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It was a sleepy start to the week, with stocks mostly spinning their wheels—all the major indexes hugged the flat line, except for Small Caps, which squeezed out a little upside.
Our TTIs pretty much mirrored the market action, ending the day barely changed.
This is how we closed 08/18/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.13% above its M/A (prior close +5.15%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.07% above its M/A (prior close +10.31%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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