ETF Tracker StatSheet
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CRYPTO GOES MAINSTREAM AS BITCOIN HOLDS STEADY IN QUIET SESSION
- Moving the market
The S&P 500 fired out of the gate, hitting a fresh record right after the opening bell—only to lose steam almost immediately. The major indexes slipped into the red not long after and spent the rest of the day glued to their flat lines, wrapping up in a pretty bland fashion.
On the bright side, some of the big tech names—Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, and Amazon—logged early gains. Over in earnings land, both Pepsi and United Airlines kept their rallies going after dropping numbers that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
Right now, plenty of traders are in “risk on” mode, with the hope that a Fed rate cut might be around the corner. Here’s the twist: historically, strong bull markets actually do better without rate cuts. In fact, the very first rate cut can sometimes signal a top, not a new rally. Still, with inflation cooling off and GDP forecasts holding up, maybe this time will buck the trend.
After a sluggish start to July, so-called “soft” data (like sentiment and expectations) is catching up to the more concrete “hard” numbers, fueling optimism. The Citi Economic Surprise Index even points to things picking up, even though today’s action on Wall Street was mostly sideways.
For the week, the Mag7 stocks easily outpaced the rest of the S&P 500, helped along by a relentless squeeze in the most shorted names. Bond yields were all over the place, the dollar ended stronger, and gold managed a move higher.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, took a nap after Monday’s surge and ended the week unchanged.
It’s worth pointing out that even the trading community is catching on: crypto isn’t just a fringe asset anymore—it’s quickly becoming a staple for mainstream investors.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It was one of those mellow market days where the major indexes barely budged—spending most of the session hovering around the flat line or drifting just a bit below it.
By the closing bell, there really wasn’t much to show for all the back-and-forth: not a lot gained (or lost), whether you look at today or the week.
Our TTIs echoed that same sideways vibe, finishing the day almost exactly where they started.
This is how we closed 07/18/2025:
Domestic TTI: +4.62% above its M/A (prior close +4.73%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.94% above its M/A (prior close +8.14%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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