- Moving the market
Wall Street kicked off the day on a high note, thanks to tumbling oil prices and cautious optimism that the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran might actually stick.
Crude dropped another 5% after yesterday’s 7% plunge, giving airline stocks a much-needed lift and setting a positive tone across the board.
It was a classic “risk-on” day, with tech and Bitcoin leading the charge—Bitcoin even spiked past $106K intraday. The Nasdaq 100 hit a new closing high, and volatility took a dive as geopolitical fears eased.
But not everything was sunshine and rainbows. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress, made it clear the Fed isn’t rushing to cut rates.
He’s waiting to see how Trump’s tariffs shake out. That didn’t sit well with some lawmakers, who grilled him on why he’s holding back—especially since economic data is looking softer than a marshmallow right now.
Bond yields dipped, the dollar slid, and gold bounced off the $3,300 mark. Meanwhile, Wall Street is starting to hope that the recent geopolitical shocks won’t derail the broader market narrative.
So, here’s the big question:
If the data is this weak and inflation was higher last time Powell cut rates—what’s he waiting for now?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
With tensions cooling off in the Middle East, the markets found some breathing room and managed to post a second straight day of gains.
Bulls took the reins early and didn’t let go, keeping the mood upbeat and driving a strong finish in the green.
Our TTIs joined the rally, both closing higher and riding the wave of optimism.
This is how we closed 06/24/2025:
Domestic TTI: +2.29% above its M/A (prior close +1.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.13% above its M/A (prior close +5.72%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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