- Moving the market
The markets experienced a slight pullback, likely due to profit-taking after a strong November, during which the S&P 500 climbed over 5%. The Nasdaq suffered the most, partly because Nvidia’s stock fell by more than 3.5%.
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-over-year. This is the highest reading since April, indicating that inflation remains a significant concern.
On the economic front, Durable Goods orders increased by 0.2% month-over-month in a preliminary estimate, which is notably lower than October’s 0.5% increase. Continuing Jobless Claims reached 1.9 million, the highest in three years, although initial claims slightly decreased to their lowest level since April.
Weak economic data led to a decline in bond yields, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.25%, and the 2-year yield nearly erasing its post-election surge. The most shorted stocks saw early gains but lost them later in the session.
In addition to the major indexes, the Mega Cap basket also declined as the dollar fell, though it remained well above its post-election highs.
Gold posted modest gains, crude oil fell for the third consecutive day, but Bitcoin was the standout performer, reversing its recent downtrend to surge past the $97,000 mark again.
The markets will be closed tomorrow, and there will be a shortened session on Friday. I will be taking the rest of the week off and will return on Monday for the next market commentary.
Happy Thanksgiving!
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Today, the stock market suffered a downturn as bearish sentiment prevailed, leading to moderate losses across the major indexes.
The Nasdaq was hit the hardest, reflecting the largest decline, while Small Caps managed to hold their ground, finishing the session unchanged.
For now, our TTIs remained relatively stable, showing minimal movement throughout the day.
This is how we closed 11/27/2024:
Domestic TTI: +10.43% above its M/A (prior close +10.53%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +4.60% above its M/A (prior close +4.65%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli