- Moving the market
The Dow continued its rally from last week, surpassing the 44,000 mark, while the S&P 500 also made significant strides by crossing the 6,000 level. However, the Nasdaq lagged. With the bond markets closed, trading activity was somewhat limited.
Several major banks saw their stock prices rise significantly, contributing to the Dow’s impressive gain of over 300 points. Traders are hopeful that Trump’s election victory might lead to more lenient regulations for the banking sector.
Bitcoin underwent a massive surge over the weekend, effortlessly breaking through the $80,000 barrier and ending the day around $87,000. This rise was fueled by hopes of deregulation and the historical trend that Bitcoin’s best performances occur approximately six months after each four-year halving cycle.
In contrast, gold prices have been declining since the election. However, when adjusted for inflation, the precious metal has not seen a significant pullback from its all-time high.
Small Caps emerged as the big winners, while the Nasdaq, despite closing slightly in the green, was the biggest loser. This was partly due to the most shorted stocks recording their fifth consecutive day of gains.
The dollar rallied back to recent highs, while crude oil prices fell to two-week lows, dropping below the $70,000 level.
The futures markets are indicating a potential increase in 10-year bond yields, which could put some pressure on the bullish sentiment when the markets open tomorrow.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes continued to exhibit a bullish sentiment, reflecting overall market optimism.
However, the true highlight was Bitcoin, which made headlines by surpassing the $80,000 mark for the first time over the weekend. This momentum carried into today’s trading session, where Bitcoin accelerated further, reaching an impressive $87,000. This surge significantly benefited the ARKB ETF, which we hold, resulting in a remarkable daily gain of 13.25%.
In comparison, our TTIs also experienced a slight increase, but their modest gains seem insignificant when compared with Bitcoin’s extraordinary performance.
This is how we closed 11/11/2024:
Domestic TTI: +10.03% above its M/A (prior close +9.48%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +5.38% above its M/A (prior close +5.20%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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