- Moving the market
Stocks jumped this morning after President Trump announced he was suspending attacks on Iran for two weeks, pausing a five-week conflict that had closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent markets reeling.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled more than 17% to $93.42 a barrel following the news.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he agreed to the pause after receiving a “10-point proposal” from Iran, calling it a workable basis for negotiations. The ceasefire is contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and both Israel and Iran have signaled agreement for now.
The initial euphoria lifted the major indexes, and despite some fading later in the day due to lingering uncertainty, they closed with solid green gains. All three reclaimed their 200-day moving averages, which is a technically positive development.
Bond yields ended unchanged, the dollar tumbled, gold surged back above $4,850 before slipping to $4,750 at the close, and Bitcoin gushed toward $73K before fading but still finished nicely higher than its pre-war levels around $65K.
Euphoria reigned for much of the day, but the fog of war is still thick. If this turns out to be just a temporary pause with more fighting ahead, we could easily give back today’s gains and then some.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The prospect of a peace deal with Iran and a pause in the fighting put a positive spin on the markets from the start.
The major indexes stormed ahead with strong buying and closed the session with a solid green finish.
The metals joined the party too, with copper posting a particularly large gain and standing out.
Our TTIs caught the bullish vibe as well—both delivered solid advances and kept the positive trend looking strong.
This is how we closed 04/08/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.11% above its M/A (prior close +1.76%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.53% above its M/A (prior close +4.62%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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