- Moving the market
The major indexes dipped early but quickly found their footing and closed with solid green gains. The rebound was helped by easing oil prices and ongoing monitoring of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire situation.
West Texas Intermediate crude eased back after briefly topping $100 a barrel, while traders digested the details of the two-week “double-sided” ceasefire.
The deal hinges on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has agreed to for the next two weeks if attacks stop. President Trump has said U.S. forces will stay in the region until full compliance, warning of a massive response if the agreement is broken.
On the economic front, February’s core PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite gauge) came in right in line with expectations, and other data showed a mixed but not disastrous picture. That helped ease some stagflation fears and supported the positive mood.
The S&P 500 notched its seventh straight winning day, with small caps and broader participation looking healthy. The Mag 7 also showed some life again.
Bond yields ended unchanged, the dollar dipped, Bitcoin climbed back above $72K, and gold advanced, briefly hitting $4,800 before fading into the close.
Longer term, the war has accelerated a notable shift: central banks now hold more gold than U.S. dollar reserves for the first time, highlighting growing distrust in the dollar.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes opened on a soft note but quickly found support as the back-and-forth headlines about a temporary truce with Iran stayed mostly positive.
Buyers stepped in, the rally gained traction, and the indexes held steady into the close with nice green finishes.
Gold, silver, and bitcoin all joined the party and moved higher, but our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) mostly treaded water and stayed stuck right around the unchanged line.
This is how we closed 04/09/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.18% above its M/A (prior close +4.11%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.73% above its M/A (prior close +7.53%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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