- Moving the market
The major indexes kicked off on a positive note, building on yesterday’s momentum as traders stayed focused on the latest twists in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Oil prices were volatile again—Brent crude bounced 2% and traded above $100 early—but the headline noise didn’t kill the bullish mood.
President Trump said a coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still coming together, with some countries “really enthusiastic” and already stepping up. That helped calm some supply fears.
Overnight, Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani was killed in airstrikes, adding to the uncertainty, but markets largely shrugged it off.
Some analysts credit the relatively strong economy, contained inflation, and solid earnings for keeping the rally alive, while others point out that risks to growth are mounting and feel higher than just a few weeks ago.
By the close, the indexes eked out a second straight green day, led by small caps outperforming.
Bond yields retreated, the dollar softened, gold danced around $5,000 without much progress, and Bitcoin outperformed again — rising to $76K before fading but still closing higher.
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady tomorrow, so markets will need a fresh driver to keep the two-day winning streak alive.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The session started with some nice positive energy that stuck around all day, even though the major indexes faded from their morning highs.
Small caps took the lead and outperformed, giving the broader market a solid lift to close in the green.
The metals pretty much went nowhere, just drifting sideways, but Bitcoin kept its quiet momentum and eked out another modest gain.
Our TTIs followed right along with the upbeat tone—both posted solid advances and kept the bullish trend looking healthy.
This is how we closed 03/17/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.16% above its M/A (prior close +2.58%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.83% above its M/A (prior close +5.35%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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