- Moving the market
The major indexes opened lower and stayed under pressure most of the day, weighed down by rising oil prices and ongoing uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude jumped 4% to above $107 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 3% to over $93, as traders reacted to the latest developments.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran “better get serious soon, before it is too late,” warning that once a certain point is reached, “there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty.”
He also described Iranian negotiators as “very different” and “strange,” claiming they were “begging” for a deal.
This came after Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran is reviewing a U.S. proposal but has no intention of direct talks. Gulf countries issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s “criminal” strikes on energy infrastructure and said they’re ready to defend themselves.
In short, nobody is quite sure where the truth lies, but the ambiguity can’t last much longer with Trump’s five-day deadline for talks looming.
In the end, risk-off sentiment dominated. “No deal” fears and the threat of escalation left traders de-risking across the board.
Oil and bond yields rose, stocks fell, the dollar strengthened, and both Bitcoin and precious metals got battered.
Gold broke below $4,400, and Bitcoin dropped from $72K to $68K. The Mag 7 continued to underperform the S&P 493 by a wide margin (now down 25% relative since the war began), with Microsoft off 24% YTD and Nvidia flat since July 2025.
Traders remain anxious ahead of tomorrow night’s Trump deadline. For sure, the market needs a fresh, clear driver to pull itself out of these doldrums.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bears were in total control right from the opening bell and only tightened their grip as the session went on.
The major indexes took a solid spanking and closed deep in the red, with the S&P 500 even hitting a new low for the month. The metals complex got dragged down right along with them—no safe havens today.
Our TTIs followed the same downward path but still managed to stay above their long-term trend lines, so the bigger bullish structure hasn’t broken yet.
A couple of our holdings did trigger their trailing sell stops today, so those will be sold unless tomorrow brings a convincingly positive vibe that changes the picture.
This is how we closed 03/26/2026:
Domestic TTI: +0.31% above its M/A (prior close +1.24%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.10% above its M/A (prior close +4.24%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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