- Moving the market
The major indexes started the day trying to build on Monday’s strong gains, but the momentum quickly fizzled out.
Crude oil resumed its rally as the Iran war dragged into its fourth week, adding to the uncertainty.
Traders were reacting to President Trump’s Truth Social post claiming the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” about ending hostilities in the Middle East.
Iranian state media quickly denied any direct talks, and The Wall Street Journal reported that while closed-door discussions had taken place through intermediaries, the two sides remain far apart and Arab mediators expressed doubt about a quick deal.
In the end, the lack of clear progress left the market with more questions than answers. The indexes closed moderately in the red (except for small caps, which held up better), and the Mag 7 once again underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 by a wide margin.
Bond yields edged higher, the dollar followed suit, gold stayed stuck around $4,400, and Bitcoin slipped below $70K amid uncertainty around the U.S. Clarity Act.
With nothing resolved in the U.S.-Iran conflict, the tit-for-tat continues, and the markets are likely to keep meandering until a real resolution is accepted by all parties.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes made some halfhearted attempts to climb back to flat, but the bears weren’t having it.
Fueled by ongoing uncertainty, bearish sentiment stayed in control and pushed everything to another red close.
The metals complex was mixed and couldn’t find any real strength today.
Our TTIs, however, went their own way and managed a green finish—the international one showed more pop, while the domestic one was a bit more subdued.
This is how we closed 03/24/2026:
Domestic TTI: +0.76% above its M/A (prior close +0.64%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.24% above its M/A (prior close +2.66%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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