- Moving the market
Stocks rallied right from the open after President Trump posted that the U.S. and Iran have been holding talks, and he’s now halting strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
The market latched onto the hope that the Middle East conflict—which had spiked oil prices and stoked recession fears—might finally be winding down.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures plunged more than 9% to around $88 a barrel, while Brent fell over 10% to $100.
Trump’s post read: “I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” (Iran later pushed back hard on much of the rhetoric, so the truth is still murky.)
That de-escalation signal was enough to satisfy the market’s desperation for good news—at least for now. Cyclical sectors like banks and industrials surged, tech joined in, and the rally stayed broad.
Small caps were the day’s biggest winners thanks to another short squeeze, though the majors all came off their early highs to close with solid gains.
Bond yields slipped (giving equities a tailwind), the dollar tumbled, gold bounced on Trump’s comments but still ended in the red (continuing its recent unwind of leverage), silver eked out a small gain, copper advanced 3.5%, and Bitcoin moved up nicely, almost tagging $72K.
What tomorrow brings is anyone’s guess, but we can count on the headline ping-pong to keep dominating market direction.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets caught a nice breather after President Trump’s optimistic post hinting at possible negotiations to end the Iran conflict. (A lot of it got walked back or denied later, but the initial headline was enough to spark some relief.)
The major indexes delivered their strongest showing in six weeks—solid gains across the board with a real sense of momentum.
The metals were mixed: gold and silver mostly treaded water, but copper stood out and earned the tip of the hat with a strong advance.
Our TTIs joined the recovery party too—they both bounced back nicely and stretched their cushion above their long-term trend lines a bit further, keeping the bullish outlook looking healthy.
This is how we closed 03/23/2026:
Domestic TTI: +0.64% above its M/A (prior close +0.00%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.66% above its M/A (prior close +2.16%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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