ETF Tracker StatSheet
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ANOTHER LOSING WEEK – INDEXES BREAK 200DMA ON IRAN FEARS
- Moving the market
The major indexes opened weak and kept sliding throughout the week, closing out another losing stretch as traders stayed glued to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.
Overnight exchanges of strikes between Iran and Israel, plus new Iranian attacks on energy sites in the Persian Gulf, kept the pressure on.
The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is sending thousands of additional Marines to the region, and Iran’s Supreme Leader doubled down on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage.
Oil prices stayed elevated but didn’t explode further—WTI and Brent futures hovered around flat today, though both are up more than 40% since the war began.
That energy shock has kept inflation fears front and center, especially after this week’s data showed inflation “outperforming” (hotter than expected) and growth “underperforming,” bringing the dreaded “stagflation” word back into play.
The S&P 500 and other majors ended the week down roughly 2%, and what’s notable is that all of them have now broken below their 200-day moving averages—a classic bearish technical signal that could invite more selling.
The Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, bond yields climbed higher across the board (pushing rate-cut expectations lower), and the dollar reversed last week’s losses amid signs of funding stress in the global financial plumbing.
Gold plummeted to seven-week lows (likely because in a dollar shortage, it’s one of the first assets sold), while silver and the metals complex generally struggled.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, held up remarkably well and has actually advanced since the war started.
ZeroHedge summed it up perfectly: decelerating growth, rising inflation threats (and their bond market impact), already low equity risk premia, and stretched valuations are making global stocks increasingly vulnerable.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bears stayed in full control from the open, and the negative mood only got worse as the day wore on.
It turned into another full sea of red, with no real place to hide—equities tanked right alongside surging bond yields, and even the metals complex got dragged lower.
The widely followed S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average—a classic bearish technical signal that could trigger more selling if it doesn’t reclaim that level soon.
Our TTIs followed the broader weakness too.
The domestic one pulled back hard and closed right on its long-term trend line (dead at 0.00% above/below), while the international one held up a little better and stayed modestly positive.
If the domestic TTI clearly breaks below that trend line and holds lower for a few days, it would officially end the current Buy cycle that started on May 20, 2025.
Stay tuned — things could get interesting fast!
This is how we closed 03/20/2026:
Domestic TTI: +0.00% above its M/A (prior close +1.72%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.16% above its M/A (prior close +4.05%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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