- Moving the market
After a solid green close on Wednesday, the markets reversed course early on Thursday as traders sought more clarity on the latest tariff measures and their economic impact.
Despite Commerce Secretary Lutnick’ s announcement of likely one-month exemptions for “more than just carmakers,” markets remained mired in uncertainty throughout the morning and turned downward in the afternoon.
The markets faced a trifecta of trouble, as ZH described it:
1. Tariffs and broader policy uncertainty
2. The sustainability of the AI trade following DeepSeek
3. Upward pressure on sovereign rates, such as those in Germany
Traders’ aversion to uncertainty led to a downward trend, with mega-cap tech stocks selling off again and the Mag7 basket continuing to decline. Growth concerns, highlighted in various surveys, suggest that the threat of stagflation remains ever-present.
Adding to traders’ concerns, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 broke their 200-day moving averages (DMAs) on an intra-day basis, which can signal a trend change from bullish to bearish, though prices bounced off that level.
Bond yields were mixed, with rate-cut expectations holding at three for this year. The dollar tumbled again, while gold traded steadily in a tight range above the $2,900 level. Bitcoin lost its $90k support ahead of tomorrow’s White House crypto summit.
Friday’s highlights will include the eagerly anticipated non-farm payrolls report, which has been dubbed the “most important data point ever.” Depending on the outcome, we might see some fireworks in the markets.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Yesterday’s rebound lacked momentum, causing equities to revert to a downward trend. Various concerns dampened bullish sentiment, giving bears the advantage.
The major indexes remained below their respective unchanged lines throughout the session and did not recover.
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) showed divergence: the international TTI saw a slight gain, while the domestic TTI declined but stayed just above its long-term trend line.
This is how we closed 03/06/2025:
Domestic TTI: +0.07% above its M/A (prior close +1.19%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +6.50% above its M/A (prior close +6.48%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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