- Moving the market
The markets showed little activity early on, with the S&P 500 trading near its highs and eventually closing at a new all-time high.
Some tech stocks, including Intel, Nvidia, and Microsoft, posted gains, with Intel leading the pack and achieving its largest two-week increase on record. Meanwhile, Meta’s 20-day win streak came to an end, causing the mega-cap sector to retreat.
After a winning week, with the Nasdaq advancing 2.6% and the S&P 500 up 1.5%, a pause may be in order. The bullish trend was supported by Trump’s announcement on Thursday about reciprocal tariffs, which were less stringent than feared.
The markets have been in a consolidation period since early December, with a potential breakout likely influenced by the latest news from Washington, which remains unpredictable.
The most shorted stocks declined, while gold surged towards the $3,000 level. In contrast, Bitcoin hit a near three-week low, and oil prices continued their rebound from Friday.
Bond yields increased, reversing the previous day’s decline and lowering expectations for a 2025 rate cut.
Despite being in the seasonally weakest period of the year, today was a strong start. Can this momentum be maintained, or will historical precedent prevail?
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The S&P 500 remained in a narrow trading range near its unchanged line for most of the session. However, a late surge in the final hour propelled it to a new record high.
Our TTIs also benefited from the positive market sentiment, closing the day higher.
This is how we closed 02/18/2025:
Domestic TTI: +4.80% above its M/A (prior close +4.00%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +8.27% above its M/A (prior close +7.46%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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