- Moving the market
After four consecutive losing sessions, the S&P 500 and other major indexes found some stability as bullish sentiment returned to Wall Street, at least initially.
The Nasdaq led the way ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement, which is due after today’s close. In anticipation of a positive report, Nvidia gained 3.5% after a 3% advance on Wednesday, although the stock is still down 2% year-to-date.
Nvidia, a bellwether and favorite tech stock, plays a crucial role in the broader markets and the AI sector. Its performance is often seen as an indicator for equities in general, and any weakness could set a bearish tone for the broader market, especially given the recent weak economic reports.
This morning’s rally was short-lived as the bears regained control by mid-day, pulling the major indexes off their highs. Only the Nasdaq managed to close moderately in the green.
Disappointing macroeconomic data, including a plunge in New Home Sales, reinforced the stagflation scenario, pushing rate-cut expectations higher and bond yields lower.
Cryptocurrencies followed the downward trend, with Bitcoin seeking support around its 200-day moving average. Bitcoin’s major support level appears to be around $80,000, assuming it continues to follow the path of global liquidity.
Gold made a comeback after a late-session dip attracted buyers, successfully defending its $2,900 support level.
The next critical data point to watch is Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Depending on the results, the PCE could significantly impact the markets.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes suffered another volatile session. After an initial rebound, the bears took control, causing the Dow and S&P 500 to lose their early gains. However, the Nasdaq managed to close in positive territory.
Our TTIs ended mixed, with only the international index advancing.
This is how we closed 02/26/2025:
Domestic TTI: +3.01% above its M/A (prior close +3.23%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +7.13% above its M/A (prior close +6.67%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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