- Moving the market
Equities dropped this morning as the S&P 500 retreated from yesterday’s new all-time high, following a disappointing forecast from Walmart.
The stock fell over 6.5% after the company announced lackluster fiscal year sales growth of 3-4% and a 2026 earnings outlook that fell below expectations. This weak guidance raised concerns about the health of the consumer.
The news dragged down fellow retailers Target, Palantir, and Costco, reducing risk appetite on Wall Street and leading to a down session. Adding to the economic uncertainty, the Leading Economic Index unexpectedly contracted in January.
The most shorted stocks gave back a portion of last week’s gains, as the major indexes managed to bounce off their worst levels of the day but still closed in the red, led by the Dow.
Bond yields slipped, the dollar weakened, while Bitcoin built on yesterday’s rebound and crossed the $98k level, with gold following suit and adding 0.56%.
The precious metal has continued last year’s strong performance, outperforming the S&P 500 year-to-date by a ratio of 2.9 to 1.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bears took control today, causing major indexes to drop after the S&P 500 had reached new all-time highs in the previous two sessions. The initial sharp decline lost momentum by mid-day as buyers stepped in, lifting equities from their lowest points.
Our TTIs retreated moderately, but this did not alter our current positive outlook.
This is how we closed 02/20/2025:
Domestic TTI: +4.75% above its M/A (prior close +5.01%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +7.69% above its M/A (prior close +7.86%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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