- Moving the market
Yesterday, the S&P 500 set an intra-day record, but it slipped early today as the overall markets showed weakness, likely due to profit-taking. However, the index regained momentum later in the session, closing in the green once again.
Recent market advances have been fueled by optimism surrounding potential tax cuts and deregulation under the Trump administration, along with signs of more resilient economic growth. The idea of tariffs has received mixed responses, and only time will tell if they will be as beneficial as initially anticipated.
The fourth-quarter earnings season is off to a strong start, with Netflix and major banks reporting better-than-expected results. However, American Airlines was a notable exception, offering weak guidance and seeing its stock plummet by 6%.
On the economic front, US continuing jobless claims increased, nearing their highest level since November 2021, with no other significant news affecting the Citi Economic Surprise Index.
Crude oil prices fell again, influenced by Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” stance. Bitcoin surged past $106,000 but gave back some of those gains by the close.
The Nasdaq lagged today, but small-cap stocks were buoyed by another short squeeze, as the markets overall benefited from improved market breadth over the past week.
Bond yields edged higher, and the dollar weakened on tariff threats, as Trump continued his criticism of high oil prices and interest rates.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Although the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq began the day on a sluggish note, they both managed to recover from their early setbacks and finished the session in positive territory.
Leading the charge was the Dow, which outperformed the other indices.
Additionally, our TTIs showed a strong performance, reinforcing our current optimistic market outlook.
This is how we closed 01/23/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.86% above its M/A (prior close +5.36%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +4.59% above its M/A (prior close +3.70%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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