ETF Tracker StatSheet
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GOLD AND SILVER REACH NEW HIGHS AMID INFLATION CONCERNS, BITCOIN NEARS $70K
- Moving the market
The Nasdaq surged ahead, driven in part by an impressive 8% jump in Netflix shares. The streaming giant not only exceeded earnings expectations but also reported a remarkable 35% increase in ad-tier memberships.
Meanwhile, the Dow lagged after reaching a new all-time closing high the previous day, and the S&P 500 posted a moderate gain. Despite only modest weekly gains, the major indexes have now achieved their sixth consecutive positive week, showing resilience against the typically negative seasonality of this period.
On the economic front, September saw a significant decline in Housing Starts and Building Permits, following an unexpected rise in August. Multi-family permits plummeted by 10.8% month-over-month, and multi-family starts dropped for the second consecutive month.
As highlighted by ZH, the Fed’s decision to cut short-term rates has paradoxically led to rising mortgage rates and a slowdown in builders’ plans, indicating a reversal of the expected economic reaction.
Small Caps led the market this week, driven by a relentless short squeeze. Banks also performed well, buoyed by strong earnings, while the technology sector remained stagnant and energy stocks declined.
Bond yields saw considerable volatility but ended with minor changes, with the 10-year yield crossing above 4%, dipping below it, and finally closing at 4.08%.
Gold surged, effortlessly slicing through the $2,700 level to reach a new all-time high with a 1.09% gain. Silver followed suit, surpassing $33 and achieving its highest close since December 2012.
The dollar strengthened, ending at levels last seen in July, while Bitcoin approached the $70,000 mark. Conversely, oil prices continued to decline, losing their $70 support, and erasing nearly all of October’s gains.
The advances in precious metals and Bitcoin suggest to me that inflation remains a significant concern. The Fed’s recent 0.5% rate cut may prove to be a policy error, as inflationary pressures are likely not only to persist but also to increase.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes maintained their upward momentum, with all three closing the week on a positive note, marking yet another victory in their bullish trajectory.
Despite this overall positive performance, our TTIs saw a slight pullback on the final trading day, though they still ended the week on a high note.
This is how we closed 10/18/2024:
Domestic TTI: +9.32% above its M/A (prior close +9.47%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +7.27% above its M/A (prior close +7.29%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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