- Moving the market
The markets experienced a downturn early on the final day of the month. However, sentiment shifted positively following a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell just before the session’s close, leading to a green finish for the major indexes.
August and September began with heightened volatility, but bullish sentiment ultimately prevailed. The S&P 500 closed the month with a 2% gain and added 5.5% for the quarter.
Historically, September is one of the weakest months of the year, and as we move into October, we face a month known for its extreme swings and significant drawdowns.
Nevertheless, traders are optimistic, as the fourth quarter is typically the strongest for equities, ending positively in more than three out of every four years, according to MarketWatch.
In September, the energy sector lagged, while Consumer Discretionary and Utilities led with gains of 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively. Bond yields decreased, and the dollar recorded its third consecutive month of losses, although it remained in a sideways pattern late in the month.
Gold continued to shine, rallying for the seventh month out of the last eight, while oil prices fell for the third straight month. Bitcoin surged, marking its best month since May.
With global liquidity on the rise, both gold and cryptocurrencies are poised for significant gains, potentially breaking out of their recent sideways pattern.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Throughout the day, the major indexes experienced significant fluctuations, moving up and down without a clear direction. However, in the late hours of the trading session, they managed to reverse course. This positive shift was largely attributed to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech, which was well-received and boosted market momentum.
Our TTIs also showed improvement, although they remained somewhat inconsistent. Notably, only the domestic TTI managed to close in positive territory, albeit just barely.
This is how we closed 09/30/2024:
Domestic TTI: +9.00% above its M/A (prior close +8.86%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +8.21% above its M/A (prior close +8.94%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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