ETF Tracker StatSheet
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SLOPPY AND CHOPPY BUT HIGHER ON THE WEEK
- Moving the markets
Despite a choppy and sloppy trading session, which caused the major indexes to surrender some of their recent hard-fought gains, they ended the week in the plus with the S&P 500 advancing around 2.2%.
Volatility reigned supreme, as poor quarterly results from social media darling SnapChat cut the advances of the Nasdaq short. We can expect more roller coaster rides with upside earnings surprises supporting the bullish theme, while disappointments will put the bears back in charge.
Not helping matters were a slew of analyst downgrades, which predominantly affected the tech space. Verizon was the worst performer in the Dow and dropped more than 7% due cutting its full-year forecast.
Poor economic data did not improve sentiment, because the PMI index, which measures US Service and Manufacturing, crashed into contraction mode, while the Citi Economic Surprise index continued on its southerly path. As ZH put it, we are seeing “a worrying deterioration in the economy.”
This sent market expectations for rate-hikes down dramatically for the week, with the odds of a 100bps hike next week having dropped to only 9%, as per Zero Hedge. Subsequently, bond yields dropped sharply with the 10-year losing 12 bps to close the day at 2.76%.
As yields sank, so did the US Dollar, the short squeeze simply faded into oblivion and Gold finally recaptured its $1,700 level but lost for the week.
As we’ve seen, market direction can change on a dime depending on the latest headline news, which means we will need to see much more consistent upward momentum, until our Trend Tracking Indexes (section 3) will give the go ahead to move back into equities.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features some of the 10 broadly diversified domestic and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which these ETFs are fluctuating above or below their respective individual trend lines (%+/-M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
For this closed-out domestic “Buy” cycle (2/24/2022), here’s how some of our candidates have fared. Keep in mind that our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) signaled a “Sell” on that date, which overrode the existing “Buys” shown for SPY and IYM:
Click image to enlarge.
Again, the %+/-M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -12% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column, which has replaced the prior -8% to -10% limits.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our TTIs advanced a tad but remain stuck on the bearish side of their respective trend lines.
This is how we closed 07/22/2022:
Domestic TTI: -6.83% below its M/A (prior close -7.54%)—Sell signal effective 02/24/2022.
International TTI: -10.35% below its M/A (prior close -10.50%)—Sell signal effective 03/08/2022.
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the specified guidelines.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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