ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
JOBS REPORT BOOSTS MAJOR INDEXES
- Moving the markets
A stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed the Dow and S&P 500 into record territory, while the Nasdaq faded and never made it into the green, as traders favored stocks that could benefit from faster economic growth.
The jobs report showed that 943k jobs were added in July, which was higher than the 845k expected. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.4%, below the estimate of 5.7%. Again, the headline number was all that mattered, although the old theme prevailed under the hood in that leisure and hospitality jobs (+380k) were more than half of the total, while another 261k came from the education sector.
ZeroHedge reported that there are now more job openings than unemployed workers, and small business owners continue to struggle to find qualified workers for their open positions.
Weakness in “Growth” and strength in “Value” was the meme of the day, however, both ended up some 0.9% for the week. Financials benefitted as well due to the rise in yields, with XLF gaining a solid 2.02% on the day.
The 10-year bond yield completed its cycle by first plunging to July 20th lows and then spiking to July 21st highs, a kind of bond roller coaster we don’t witness very often. The US Dollar index ripped higher on the back of increased yields and, as a result, sent Gold packing and back below its hard fought for $1,800 level. The precious metal surrendered 2.48% on the day.
After this jobs report, the question is whether the Fed will see this improvement as a reason to make a formal tapering announcement in November, the probability of which is 25% (up from 20%) and 55% that it will happen in December.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features some of the 10 broadly diversified domestic and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which these ETFs are fluctuating above or below their respective individual trend lines (%+/-M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
For this current domestic “Buy” cycle, here’s how some our candidates have fared:
Click image to enlarge.
Again, the %+/-M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our TTIs slipped despite 2 of the 3 major indexes advancing.
This is how we closed 08/06/2021:
Domestic TTI: +10.45% above its M/A (prior close +10.84%)—Buy signal effective 07/22/2020.
International TTI: +6.80% above its M/A (prior close +7.29%)—Buy signals effective 07/22/2020.
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the specified guidelines.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details here.
———————————————————
Back issues of the ETF Tracker are available on the web.
Contact Ulli