ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
GDP SLOWS BUT BEATS EXPECTATIONS
- Moving the markets
All eyes were on the latest release of the second quarter GDP report, and it did not disappoint. While we saw a slowdown from the torrid pace of 3.1% per annum set in the first quarter, the 1.9% expectation was easily beat with the economy growing at 2.1% per annum in the second quarter. The fly in the ointment was that corporate profits dumped to an 8-year low.
While this number is sure to be revised again, for right now, the computer algos saw ‘good’ news as ‘good’ news, and the major indexes rose to new intra-day record highs with the Dow being the laggard again.
This better-than-expected GDP number is sure to give the Fed some headache when it comes to next week’s decision as to whether to lower rates, and if so by how much, or stay put. After all, they see inflation data as mild, which leaves them with the question “are we really seeing a slowdown that justifies further easing?”
The Nasdaq led all the way by gaining +1.11% followed by the S&P 500 with +0.74%. More than 40% of the S&P 500 companies have now reported quarterly earnings, so the earnings race will continue next week.
Quipped ZH regarding the Fed: Let’s hope that Powell delivers, because global liquidity is starting to diverge again. This chart makes that abundantly clear, while bonds and stocks continue with their own interpretation of divergence.
The Fed will be on deck next Wednesday, and I for one am curious whether the adage “buy the rumor, sell the fact” rears its ugly head again, especially if the Fed indeed turns out to be in an interest rate cutting mode.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%+/-M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
For this current domestic “Buy” cycle, here’s how some our candidates have fared:
Again, the %+/-M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) edged higher as today’s GDP number ignited some upward momentum.
Here’s how we closed 07/26/2019:
Domestic TTI: +7.84% above its M/A (last close +7.68%)—Buy signal effective 02/13/2019
International TTI: +4.64% above its M/A (last close +4.54%)—Buy signal effective 06/19/2019
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the specified guidelines.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details here.
———————————————————
Back issues of the ETF Tracker are available on the web.
Contact Ulli