ETF Tracker StatSheet
THE WORST THANKSGIVING WEEK IN 7 YEARS
- Moving the markets
Despite an early rally attempt based on hope that “black Friday” would do wonders for the retail sector, the gains could not be sustained, and the major indexes plunged into the close during this Holiday shortened session.
In the end, things continued to look bleak for the bulls with the indexes scoring their worst Thanksgiving week since 2011. How bad was it? The Nasdaq tumbled -4.3%, the Dow slipped -4.4% and the S&P 500 turned out to be the “winner” by “only” losing -3.8%. That is down 10% from its record closing high and confirms that is now in correction territory.
Crude oil (WTI) took top billing again by crashing almost -8% to a 10-year low and is barely hanging on to a $50 handle. Sure, much of the headlines talk about supply worries ahead of an upcoming OPEC meeting, but to me the real reason is simply a slowdown in global growth activity. That is why our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) has been in bear market territory since 10/11/2018. Bear markets are a result of economic slowdowns.
This chart, hat tip goes to ZH, demonstrates that “soft” survey data is starting to catch down to the “hard” reality of economic data. If this continues, we’ll sure be welcoming the S&P 500 to bear market territory soon (another 10% drop).
It’s good to be on the sidelines.
- ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how our original candidates have fared:
Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.
- Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) were mixed with the Domestic one slipping and the International one gaining a tad.
Here’s how we closed 11/23/2018:
Domestic TTI: -3.68% below its M/A (last close -3.46%)—Sell signal effective 11/15/2018
International TTI: -5.54% below its M/A (last close -5.58%)—Sell signal effective 10/11/2018
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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