ETF Tracker StatSheet
MAJOR INDEXES LIMP LOWER FOR THE WEEK
- Moving the markets
Even a decent jobs report showing that 201k jobs were added in August (vs. 200k expectations), along with a steady 3.9% unemployment rate, couldn’t stem the bearish tide. The major indexes lost for the week with Nasdaq faring the worst with -2.5%.
Bond yields jumped with the 10-year adding 6 basis points to 2.94% as inflation fears were stoked, because of the strongest growth in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) in 9 years. This now has traders on edge with more interest hikes by the Fed now being a virtual certainty. A growing AHE, when combined with a humming economy, is interpreted as contributory to future inflation.
On the trade side of things, Trump upped the ante with China again when he announced that he is ready to not just greenlight the $200 billion in previously discussed tariffs but also impose another $267 billion that his administration is working on with the tariff rate being unknown so far.
Obviously, the fact that the July trade deficit with China reached an all-time high of $36.9 billion contributed to his decision. Even Apple Computers had to come out and admit that its products would be affected by tariffs causing the stock to drop sharply.
It’s been a rough start of the month for the markets, but after a summer of almost non-existent volatility, some changes were due to happen, and we’ll have to wait and see if this first week was simply an outlier or a harbinger of things to come.
- ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:
Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.
- Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed south again. I am still watching the International one closely to see if a rebound is in the making, but I think we are getting close to having the ‘Sell’ signal confirmed.
Here’s how we closed 09/07/2018:
Domestic TTI: +4.25% above its M/A (last close +4.83%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016
International TTI: -1.67% below its M/A (last close -1.42%)—Buy signal effective 7/26/2018
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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