ETF Tracker StatSheet
TRADE JITTERS PULL MAJOR INDEXES DOWN FOR THE WEEK
- Moving the markets
The markets staged a nice rebound today with the Dow snapping its 8-session drop, but weakness occurred late in the day with the indexes diving into the close, and the Nasdaq ending in the red.
The international ETFs recuperated, thereby making my call, whether to validate yesterday’s dip below its trend line and selling some of our affected holdings, an easy one. I selected option 1 of 3, which I pointed out in yesterday’s post:
Once the markets open tomorrow and seem to be steady or rebounding, I will hold off liquidating our international positions for another day.
That’s how it played out for the time being, but it’s far from certain that this rebound will hold, so we must be prepared to switch gears again should market conditions warrant such a move.
Dangers to more weakness in global markets lurk everywhere. One example is Trump’s latest announcement to slap 20% tariffs on all cars coming into the U.S. from Europe. Ouch! Should this threat turn into a reality, we can be sure that our International TTI will be testing its trend line to the downside again (currently +0.15%).
In the larger scheme of things, on a worldwide basis, there has only been one asset that has been outperforming, as this chart shows, which makes me wonder how long this discrepancy can last.
Summing up the week, we find this (thanks to ZH):
- Dow’s worst week in 3 months (ends 8-day losing streak, worst in 40 years)
- Trannies’ worst week in 3 months
- S&P worst week since early April
- Nasdaq ended the week lower – first down week in a month
- Small Caps up (barely) for 8th week in a row
Tomorrow is June 23rd, which is the 10-year anniversary of our epic call to get out of domestic equities on 6/23/08 just prior to the crash. Here’s what the chart looked like at that time:
As you can see, we had a whip-saw signal leading up to the 6/23/08 “Sell,” after which we floundered for a while until the bottom dropped out in the following quarter. Looking at today’s market environment, things look very similar. To me, the question is not “if” but “when” we will see a repeat and to what magnitude.
- ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:
Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.
- Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) were mixed again with the Domestic one slipping. The International one rebounded and reclaimed its trend line and closed above it, albeit by a small margin. The potential “Sell” signal is off until we see a clear piercing of the line to the downside along with some staying power.
Here’s how we closed 06/22/2018:
Domestic TTI: +2.28% above its M/A (last close +2.46%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016
International TTI: +0.15% above its M/A (last close -0.36%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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