ETF Tracker StatSheet
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Market Commentary
YELLEN SPEAKS, BUT WAS ALREADY PRICED IN
1. Moving the Markets
As I have been stating throughout the week, one of the main market moving events that was on deck has been an anticipated speech from Janet Yellen, which took place today. The speech was well-received and did (once again) indicate the possibility of an interest-rate hike later this year; however, it appears that the possibility of that hike has (for the most part) been baked into markets already.
Thus, the market’s tepid reaction suggests that investors may have priced in the likelihood of an interest-rate increase, though few expect it to occur at the Fed’s September meeting…December is more likely, but who knows? Being non-committal and vague are the hallmarks of Fed communications.
In thinking about the economy in general, the Commerce Department reported today that U.S. GDP rose 1.1% in the second quarter, below a previous estimate of 1.2%. The global economic slowdown and oil’s slide have undermined economic activity, but what has kept the economy afloat have been the allegedly solid employment figures YTD.
With the summer winding down, it is now time to look towards the fall quarter. Economic figures for Q2 are wrapped up and we have three months to follow the markets and see what is going to the big movers and the shakers.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
Here are the 10 candidates:
The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:
Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed south this week as the major indexes were in retreat mode with the various Fed mouthpieces hinting at the possibility of higher rates.
Here’s how we closed 8/26/2016:
Domestic TTI: +2.71% (last Friday +3.02%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016
International TTI: +4.27% (last Friday +4.72%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016
Have a great weekend.
Ulli…
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
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