ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
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Market Commentary
SOLID END TO A VOLATILE SECOND QUARTER
1. Moving the Markets
The U.S. stock market extended its post-Brexit rally to four days as it kicked off the first day of third quarter trading. As it stands today, the major indexes are just short of wiping out all of their Brexit-driven losses. What seems strange, however, is that gold, silver, bonds and stocks are all rallying at the same time; this can’t continue on forever and some of these asset classes will have to give at some time.
Wall Street ended the week on a high note indeed. Friday’s gains follow a wild five days in the market, which started with a 5.3% plunge last Friday and Monday after Britain shocked markets by voting to leave the European Union. However, a strong June manufacturing report in the U.S. and the belief among investors that global central bankers will take steps to offset Brexit-driven headwinds largely drove markets higher today to round out the week.
Stocks in Europe also finished the week with a rally. The FTSE 100 in London gained 1.1% and the broad Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.7%. The British pound, however, dropped about 0.25%.
Now that a new quarter has begun and the Brexit shock is fading, Wall Street will turn its attention to incoming economic data, such as the June jobs report set for release next Friday, to see if the U.S. economy can shrug off the economic and political crisis in Europe.
The second-quarter earnings season will also kick in to high gear mid-July, which should shed some light on whether a second-half profit rebound is actually forthcoming or a mere pipe dream.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
Here are the 10 candidates:
The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:
Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) took a jump as Brexit fears subsided and the major indexes staged a V-shape rebound, which was impressive although there was no volume, which makes this rally suspect. The International TTI improved as well but still remains stuck below its trend line.
Here’s how we closed out this week:
Domestic TTI: +1.88% (last Friday +0.66%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016
International TTI: -0.73% (last Friday -3.10%)—Sell signal effective 6/28/2016
Have a great weekend.
Ulli…
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
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