ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
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Market Commentary
STOCKS DROP AND POP AFTER STRONG JOBS REPORT
1. Moving the Markets
On the surface the jobs report was received as a winner with equities tanking at first and then staging their usual comeback with the major indexes closing higher for the week.
While the headline number of 215,000 jobs gained sounded good, almost two-thirds of those continued to be minimum wage jobs just as we’ve witnessed in previous months. On the negative side, some 29,000 manufacturing jobs were lost, the largest monthly drop since 2009.
However, none of these events matter since any kinds of news, good, bad or indifferent, has had the same effect on the markets lately, which is to drive them higher. Even as last month’s lead dog, US oil, got spanked at the tune of some -4.5% today, the S&P 500 decoupled and ended up higher pushing our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) into “Buy” mode.
See section 3 below for important details.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
Here are the 10 candidates:
The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:
Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) jumped today and broke its +1% level giving us a new “Buy” signal for “broadly diversified domestic ETFs/Mutual Funds.”
It appears that the indexes have broken out to the upside, but we’ll play it carefully as you can never be sure in today’s Fed managed market environment. I will look at the price levels of the indexes this coming Monday (mid-morning) and will, absent a major move south in the S&P 500, start to ease back into a few conservative ETFs with much less than a 100% allocation. If there is no sell-off in the making, I will consider April 4th to be the effective date of this new Domestic “Buy” cycle.
Here’s how we closed this week:
Domestic TTI: +1.25% (last Friday +0.27%)—Sell signal effective 11/13/2015
International TTI: -2.25% (last Friday -3.73%)—Sell signal effective 8/21/2015
Have a great weekend.
Ulli…
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
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Contact Ulli
Comments 2
Uli
In this market cycle dating from your most recent sell signal until today, I have held all of my positions. Those who follow your suggestions, no doubt, got out of the market at your alert signal. As of today, both they and I are at the same place in the market, assuming they are all back in, now. The difference, in my mind is that I have mirrored their performance without creating a taxable event. Comment?
Smokey
4/1/16
Smokey,
Yes, while you are correct, you are also extremely lucky in that the markets did not collapse in mid-
February as the Fed’s jawboning prevented the S&P 500 from slicing below the 1,800 level. The subsequent rebound saved many buy and holders from losing their shirt.
Had you done what you did back in July of 2008, you would have suffered severe financial hardship. I for one will not take the chance that next time the market tanks will turn into a repeat rally of March 2016.
Ulli…