ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 11, 2011
If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.
1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011
This past week, the domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the past few days, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there for a few trading days.
As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +0.19%.
The link below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting order is by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 8/11/2011, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%.
During the next Buy signal, you can use the tables in the links below to make your selections:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_081111.xls
2. DOMESTIC FUNDS BY FAMILY: American Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds, Rydex, T. Rowe Price — SELL
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs081111.xls
3. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MASTER LIST
As per request, I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly compare various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs listed in the table (476) consist of the following orientations: Domestic, International, Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted for dividends.
Please note that I have moved all bear market ETFs to section 11, where they are listed alongside the bear market mutual funds.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster081111.xls
4. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFs): SELL
ETFs are an excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. They are a valid choice to high mutual fund management fees, restrictive trading and redemption charges, which have been a problem for years.
All the same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in section 1.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs081111.xls
5. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL—since 6/16/2011
As a result of the recent market sell-off, the International TTI has now crossed -10.17% below the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. Until we see a new break out to the upside, we will stay on the sidelines in the international arena.
The listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international funds I track to be used during the next Buy cycle. Please note that I have added Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Rydex/ProFunds and American Century Funds. They are sorted by M-Index ranking:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds081111.xls
Be advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the above list.
6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY
While I believe that the United States is the greatest country in the world to live in, it is not necessarily always the best, or only one, to invest in.
This addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries using low cost index ETFs.
The chart shows the China Index as an example:
The link contains a list of various countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly. Please note that data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs081111.xls
As you witnessed during the last couple of years, country funds can be volatile and the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your portfolio from severe downside moves.
7. THE SimpleHedge STRATEGY: Temporarily discontinued
8. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY
To diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is by M-Index:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs081111.xls
I personally invest no more than 5%-10% of portfolio value in any one sector and use a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk.
9. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (Mutual Funds): SELECTIVE BUY
If you prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will like this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise the use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs.
The sorting order is by M-Index:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs081111.xls
10. BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELL
If you prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and dividend paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how these instruments have held up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your favorite financial web site to examine yield and other details.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs081111.xls
11. BEAR MARKET FUNDS: SELL
The above indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend indicator for Bear Market Funds.
The SFC has now broken above its long-term trend line by +5.90%, which means we remain in negative territory. As in the past, I will not take any action until the domestic TTI (section 1) has clearly broken into bear market territory.
Below are the most commonly available bear market funds/ETFs and their momentum figures:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds081111.xls
Please note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can certainly accelerate your losses as well. No matter which way you choose, be sure to work with a trailing sell stop and be aware that volatility will be your constant companion.
12. 401(k) FUNDS (domestic): SELL
The list (featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of the TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well.
Since fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into an IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that.
In the meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the worst fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again buy one of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out of the market altogether.
The sorting order is now also by M-Index.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k081111.pdf
Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k081111.xls
13. New Subscriber Information
To get you a head start on more successful investing, please click on:
http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf
and download our “How to use” information sheet and recent “Buy Signal” information:
http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf
The use of Trailing Sell Stops is an important ingredient to a successful trend tracking strategy. Download my complete 70 page PDF file on the subject at:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SellStopDiscipline.pdf
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Comments 5
Ulli,
Thanks for the great statsheet. In the weekly issue item 10, Bond & Dividend paying ETFs are placed together. Any plan to place Bonds and Dividend paying ETFs in the separate items. Since combing together, the indication of selling may not apply to both bonds and ETFs at the same time. Any comments?
George,
Good point! No, I have no plans to create another separate listing. To be clear, dividend paying equity ETFs are a Sell, while Bond ETFs are a selective Buy. When the domestic TTI moves into bear territory, all equity related ETFs/Mutual funds are included in the Sell signal.
Ulli…
I was “all out” before these last days except for “JNK” which had hung on.
I got out of JNK today after seeing it drop/rise/drop/rise above and below my sell-stop these past days. I think it ended up selling at a 7% loss overall but without my best attempts at following Uli’s wise advise, it could have been worse. As for the rest of my ETFs, they made good money before selling out at 7% sell-stops. Now I’ll just check in each day looking for NEW buy signals and start over. Thank you Ulli for sharing your system, data, and for answering questions!
Ulli,
Always informative with your fine newsletter, I follow it especially as somewhat long term or medium term trader. I can’t seem to do well with individual stocks per-se, seems the volatility just doesn’t agree with my mentality or emotions. So for several years I have been concentrating with exchanging Mutual funds in relationship to the over all market cycles, including especially your weekly trend trading. The funds I have traded with was SPHIX which was paying a variable 6 to 8% during the time I held it, and then when I see that the market or fund itself is dropping (as of this writing) , I have switched over to the Government funds, FSTGX, FGOVX, and especially more so with FBNDX which just pays a 3%. By observing the divergence between the High Yield Fund(s) and alternating with the Government funds and staying with dividend pay out, I have been doing relatively pretty well. It would be interesting to hear comments from others regarding this method and if they find it profitable. Thanks for a fine newsletter..
Ulli,
Thanks for the reply.
George