In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics that I posted to my blog during the week ending on 8/7/2011.
Another sharp downside week pushed the major domestic indexes to the edge of slipping into bear market territory, according to my Domestic TTI.
After Friday’s close, Standard & Poor’s announced the downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ with a questionable outlook. My guess is that market reaction will be very volatile for a day or so until that news and possible implications have sunk in. On the other hand, maybe some of this news has already been priced in, as it was expected, but the timing of it was the big unknown.
In any event, if you followed my sell stops rules, you should not have any equity exposure at this time with the exception of a couple of sector/country ETFs.
This week, we covered the following:
“Thoughts On Hedging The Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX)”
“ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 8/5/2011”
“ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, August 5, 2011”
“Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 8/4/2011”
“Equity ETF’s Get Spanked – Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) Remains Above Its Trend Line”
“Market Review – High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 8/3/2011”
“Now 7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 8/2/2011″
“Major Market ETFs Break Support Levels”
“Market Review – Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 7/29/2011”
“Expanded ETF Master Cutline List – Updated through 7/29/2011”
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Comments 4
Hi Ulli,
You still have “Buy” listed for General Domestic Equity Funds. Under what conditions will you switch that to “Sell” and are we close to that point. I have been using your “Sell” as my sell point and I have avoided many whip saws using that method.
Thank you.
Anon,
Please re-read Friday’s commentary, as I elaborated on the domestic TTI and where it currently stands.
Ulli…
I’ve been sold off due to 7% trailing stop for some time – except for JNK. You say that we should be mostly out of equity funds at this time but your charts show “Buy” signals. Refresh me: Since you’ve had a buy signal posted for many months (looking at domestic), should I have been using cash from sales mentioned above to “buy”? If I had, I wouldn’t be able to say I’m without much equity exposure at this time.
Kirk,
As long as the Domestic TTI remains above its long-term tend line, we are technically in a buy mode subject to our trailing sell stops. In reality, once the TTI sinks into bear market territory, which it appears to do today (8/8), that would signal an all-out sell for all domestic equities. Because of the sell stops kicking in prior to that event, we will have no equities left to sell this late in the game – this is a good thing! The exception might be a sector/country fund, for which you use their respective trend lines to determine the final break to join the bears.
Ulli…