After bouncing around its long-term trend line for the past couple of weeks, the International TTI (Trend Tracking Index) finally fell back below it by -0.88%. As I wrote previously, I had been holding back issuing a new ‘Buy’ for “broadly diversified international funds/ETFs” due to lack of follow through to the upside.
The goal was to avoid a whipsaw signal, which means a ‘Buy’ quickly followed by a ‘Sell.’ This is exactly what happened as more fallout from last Friday’s weak employment numbers, coupled with the battle over the U.S. debt ceiling and a worsening of the European debt crisis joined forces and knocked the markets to the mat.
This triple punch combination took the starch out of any remaining upward momentum although, as the chart above shows, it was downhill all the way.
For the record, our domestic TTI dropped as well but remains on the bullish side of the trend line by +3.84%.
Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com
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Comments 2
Thanks for this update Ulli. A big thanks for your patience on the International TTI and not calling a new buy and using your experience to hold off and avoid a whipsaw. I am sure there is more turbulence to come over the next couple of months in both domestic and international markets and your guidance on using the TTI and Stop Loss is appreciated.
Mike,
Yes, so far we lucked out on this call. I agree with your assessment of more downside risk to come.
Ulli…