Dow Inches Up While Tech Stocks Lead

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The Dow continued blazing a trail today, bolstered by a strong earnings report from tech giant Microsoft (MSFT). The index continues to plow its way into record territory and lately there’s no sign of it doing otherwise. The nine-day winning streak is its longest since a 10-session rally more than three years ago in March 2013.

The Dow and S&P 500 have been moving higher in the past week due to a better-than-expected start to Q2 earnings season, which, of course, was based on sharply reduced expectations to begin with to make the actual numbers look better. This rally is hardly based on improving economic fundamentals but more so a function of central bank intervention to keep the dream of a recovery alive. After all, if that was not so, why would bond yields signal a recession in the making? As a result, the continued Bull Run is merely a reflection of investor optimism that central bankers (CBs) around the world will continue to support the markets with fiscal stimulus. Once either optimism or CB support ends, watch out below!

Microsoft’s earnings report blew the hats off of investors as it surpassed profit estimates by 16 cents per share. The strong results from the tech giant, which is best known for its software, were more correlated to this quarter’s strong performance from its cloud computing division. Shares gained 5.3% on the day.

Morgan Stanley (MS) also bested expectations today via both profit and revenue results. Shares closed 2.1% higher.

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Markets Reacting Awkward Despite Solid Earnings Reports

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended mixed today, apart from the Dow, which climbed for an eighth straight day and notched a new closing high.

While the S&P 500 closed in the red today, don’t forget that the index is coming off another record high recently, and both the S&P 500 and the Dow are now up more than 6% for the year.

Second quarter earnings season is fully underway and we heard from some big market movers today. Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), IBM (IBM) and United Healthcare (UNH) all posted numbers that beat sharply reduced earnings expectations.

Shares of Goldman Sachs, which topped analyst forecasts by nearly 70 cents per share, fell 1.3%. J&J stock, which also topped analyst forecasts rose 1.7% higher and IBM slid lower after solid earnings. This begs the question as to just how much share price movement is really tied to earnings reports…

One of the big entertainment market movers, Netflix (NFLX), missed big on its earnings report and shares of the stock fell accordingly, -13% approximately. The company only added 1.7 million new subscribers from April through June, which was significantly below the 2.5 million they were expecting. The company blamed their lackluster numbers on people cancelling their memberships at a higher rate than expected.

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Rally Rally, Hear Our Cry!

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks extended their record-setting rally and closed at new all-time highs today as investors felt relief by an earnings report from Bank of America (BAC) and a failed coup attempt in Turkey over the weekend. Computer algos, as usual, engaged in a game of headline hockey as Yahoo reported BofAs “better-than-expected profit,” while the far more analytical and realistic ZeroHedge featured “Bank of America’s Profit tumbles 19%,” detailing that the EPS “Beat” was based on a surge in cost-cutting. Well, you can always put some lipstick on that pig to make sure the indexes are rallying.

In a sign of the market’s new resiliency and breakout from its 14-month trading range, it kicked off the week in the black. Last week’s terror attack in the south of France and the latest deadly killing of three U.S. police officers in Baton Rouge did not help investor sentiment, however, markets have stayed strong nonetheless.

In the world of internet media, with a possible new buyer waiting in the wings, Yahoo (YHOO) delivered what most were expecting in its second quarter earnings report: lower expenses and slower growth. The company’s investors are still awaiting a potential corporate sale by the end of 2016, but the stock continues to perform well nonetheless.

Earnings season has arrived. More than 90 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report earnings this week and currently, analysts are expecting earnings in the April-thru-June period to contract 4.5%.  If this contraction takes place, it would mark the fourth quarter in a row with negative profit growth. The hope on Wall Street is that the so-called “earnings recession” will end in the second quarter, paving the way for a resumption of profit growth beginning in the current quarter, which began July 1 and ends Sept. 30. Sure, more lipstick on that pig…

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One Man’s Opinion: The Truth About The Great Depression That All Mainstream Economists Ignore

Ulli Market Review Contact

OneMan'sOpinionBy Phoenix Captial

Ben Bernanke is back at it.

Bailout Ben, the “hero” who missed the housing bubble, then oversaw the single largest handout in crony capitalist history, all the while playing favorites and lecturing the rest of us that we should be grateful that he “saved” the world, is in Japan.

His purpose?

To help them implement Helicopter Money.

This is the same man who generated the single weakest recovery in history after wasting $3 trillion in QE. On a per job basis, the Fed, under Bernanke, spent over $300K for every job created post 2008.

In Bernanke’s world, failure of this magnitude is not because you’re wrong, it’s because you didn’t do “enough.”

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/15/2016

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 332 (last week 310) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 83 ETFs (last week 77) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 711 (last week 623) above the line and 157 below it out of the 780 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 15, 2016

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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https://theetfbully.com/2016/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07142016/

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Market Commentary

FRANCE INCIDENT PULLS MARKETS LOWER TO END THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The stock market here in the U.S. ended mixed Friday, despite some decent economic and earnings news this week, as the mood of the market was pulled down by the latest terror attack in France.

As you may know, the market has been on a record-setting run since the Brexit vote. Overnight in France, however, a driver of a truck ran down pedestrians, killing 84 people and injuring many more. The latest strike in France, presumed a terror attack, raises fresh questions about global security. Events such as these can “spook” markets the day or two after they happen and this time was no different.

In earning news, Citigroup (C), despite a 14% drop in quarterly earnings vs. a year ago, topped both earnings and revenue projections. The company’s shares lost 0.3% though despite the earnings beat. Wells Fargo’s (WFC) quarterly results came in equal to expectations and shares subsequently fell 2.5%.

In China, second-quarter economic growth allegedly clocked in at 6.7%, unchanged from Q1 2016, but above economists’ forecast. Stabilization in the Chinese economy, engineered to a great degree by stimulus efforts of policy makers, is another plus for so-called risk assets, such as stocks. Here in the U.S., June retail sales in the U.S. rose a solid 0.6%, well above the 0.1% rise expected, although the fly in the ointment was that it came from a decidedly weaker than initially reported May.

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