Touching New Records

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

The bullish mood continued with the S&P and Nasdaq setting new records, while the Dow briefly crossed its 29k marker but backed off later in the session.

Supporting the ramp higher was news that the U.S. no longer plans on designating China a currency manipulator, which is mainly a symbolic designation but was also seen as a good will gesture.

That further seems to soothe the always raw nerves in the US-China trade battle, which are scheduled to be signed this Wednesday, although it will only be a Phase-1 settlement with other negotiations to follow with the goal to eventually achieve a full resolution.

With the earnings season on deck, rumors circulated that, once world’s largest investment banks show their report cards, some of the details (fixed income) may not be as bad as feared, which lent support to today’s advance.

Taking top billing today was the Nasdaq with a +1.04% gain, while the S&P settled for 2nd place with a nice showing of +0.7%, a good chunk of which came during the last hour push, as we have witnessed many times in the past.

All eyes are now on tomorrow’s start of the financial earnings reporting cycle, which may very well give a hint as to what else is to come.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/10/2020

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below, please find the latest High-Volume ETF Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39-week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 322 High Volume ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 288 (last week 291) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:                                                                   

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms. If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.      

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 10, 2020

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

ENDING A POSITIVE WEEK ON A DOWN NOTE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Despite the Dow touching the 29k level intra-day for the first time, there simply was not enough upward momentum left to keep the major indexes in the green, and all three of them ended up with modest losses.

However, for the week, the S&P managed to eke out an almost 1% gain, which is quite impressive given the flare up in Middle East tensions over the past weekend and into Monday.

Not helping matters today was the Labor Department’s report showing that job and wage growth was weaker than expected in December, but it did not keep the major indexes from setting new intra-day highs before slipping into the close.

The jobs report missed, as only 145k new jobs were created missing expectations of 160k, which was 111k lower than downward revised 256k last month. Manufacturing took the biggest hit, down -12k, which is its biggest drop since the summer of 2016, according to ZH.

While disappointing, many analysts believe that today’s payroll miss is unlikely to change the general economic outlook, as it’s well known that the economy is merely chugging along at a comfortable pace, while being far from overheating.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on the arrival of the Chinese delegation on Monday to complete the Phase 1 trade agreement with the U.S. While the outcome is a foregone conclusion, given history, you can never be sure, however, until all documents have actually been signed.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/09/2020

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 9, 2020

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.

2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 7.5% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

3. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on  the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 7.5% -10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.     

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 02/13/2019

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) is now positioned above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.00% after having generated a new Domestic “Buy” signal effective 2/13/19 as posted.

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And The Bullish Beat Goes On

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

After the opening bell, the major indexes continued their attack into record territory, as the attention moved from Iran to the latest in the U.S.-China trade agreement.

It appeared that the tensions in the Middle East eased somewhat, as the war rhetoric seemed to have slowed down, or at least has been put on the back burner for the time being. Trump’s comments yesterday that he wasn’t pushing for an all-out war with Iran, was a relief for traders and resulted in a continuation of the rebound.

The trade deal now took front and center again with China’s Vice Premier He scheduled to lead a delegation to Washington next week to sign the Phase 1 agreement, which supported the current bullish market mood.

In the meantime, the Fed’s vice chairman Clarida announced that the economy “was on solid ground,” but emphasized that the Fed’s interest rate policy may be changed at any meeting. Surprisingly, this statement did not have a negative market moving effect.

In the end, the major indexes melted up again with the S&P’s forward PE now at 18.5x, which is its highest since the dotcom bust, according to ZH.

It simply confirms that fundamental evaluations no longer matter, until one day, they do. Until then, what matters are the coordinated efforts by the Central Banks to maintain low to negative interest rates and making sure an abundance of liquidity, AKA the #1 market driver, is always available.

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Climbing A Wall Of Worry—And Setting New Records

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Despite a sharp sell-off overnight in the futures market, which pulled the Dow down some 400 points, the negative mood had completely changed by the time regular session bell rang.

We opened slightly higher with upward momentum gaining steam, after remarks by Trump suggested that the U.S. and the Iranian were refraining from further military action.

He further minimized Tuesday’s attack by elaborating that no U.S. casualties were sustained, and only “minimal’ damage was done to U.S. military facilities in Iraq.

In the end, the market’s initial “risk-off” reaction reversed in no time sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into record territory, although both indexes came off their highs and slipped into the close. On the downside, crude oil was hammered, as the de-escalation theme ruled the day.

On the economic front we learned that private sector employment data from ADP showed that 202,000 new jobs were added in December, which was above the expected number of 157,000. We’ll have to wait and see if Friday’s employment report supports that trend as well.

AS ZH posted, “from WW3 to record highs in 12 hours, as missiles flew and so did tweets and now all is well again.”

I am sure there will be more to this story, as time goes on.

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