ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 24, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

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GOLD PAUSES, YIELDS STEADY AS STOCKS SOAR

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks hit new highs Friday after cooler-than-expected inflation data boosted hopes the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate-cutting path and keep the soft-landing story alive.

The September CPI report showed prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year—both slightly below forecasts—while core inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed just 0.2% for the month and 3% over the year.

The data gave traders confidence that the Fed’s easing cycle is on track, with market odds now fully pricing in rate cuts at both remaining meetings this year. Investors cheered the news, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records and even pushing the Dow closer to another milestone.

Positive earnings surprises added to the good vibes. Intel surged 5% after reporting quarterly revenue above expectations, helped by strong AI chip demand. Procter & Gamble gained more than 1% after beating Wall Street’s forecasts for both earnings and revenue, saying consumer demand remains resilient despite higher costs.

Gold cooled off after a nine-week winning streak but held solidly above $4,100, and silver found support near the $48 mark. Bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year Treasury hovering around 4%, while Bitcoin extended its weekly rebound toward $111,000.

Looking ahead, seasonal trends suggest the market could stay strong through year-end—but will that historical pattern hold up this time, or will inflation and politics throw another twist into the mix?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/23/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 23, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.91% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Rally As Optimism Builds Ahead Of CPI 

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked this session off on a strong note, with major indexes steadily building gains through the session as investor optimism returned to center stage.

Coming off Wednesday’s selling, traders found renewed confidence in tech and industrial names, while upbeat talk around U.S.-China relations and better-than-expected home sales added fuel to the rebound.

Even with tomorrow’s CPI data looming, the mood was decidedly positive. The market shrugged off last night’s headlines and took Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on potential export curbs in stride, while confirmation that President Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping is officially on the calendar helped calm trade nerves.

Tesla shares stayed volatile, dipping after its mixed results but bouncing back by the close, while IBM’s 5% slide reminded investors how unforgiving earnings season can be.

Still, the overall tone was upbeat, with all major asset classes—equities, gold, and even Bitcoin—rising in unison.

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 4%, and gold climbed back above $4,100 as traders leaned into risk heading into Friday’s inflation print.

With markets choosing to see the glass half full for now, will tomorrow’s CPI keep the rally alive—or snap investors back to reality if inflation proves sticky?

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Tech Weakness Weighs On Wall Street After Netflix Miss

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks slipped today as traders weighed a fresh round of earnings and sifted through disappointing results from some big names.

The session started on a weak note, with selling pressure building after Netflix’s quarterly miss and a downbeat outlook from Texas Instruments.

Netflix shares plunged about 10% after the streaming giant reported earnings per share of $5.87, missing forecasts of $6.97, largely due to a $619 million tax hit tied to a dispute in Brazil. The company stressed that the issue was a one-off, but traders weren’t convinced.

Texas Instruments didn’t help sentiment either—its stock fell 6% after posting underwhelming results and issuing a softer-than-expected forecast for the coming quarter, reigniting worries about chip sector demand.

Elsewhere, the Dow pulled back after Tuesday’s record-breaking close near 47,000, with traders taking profits from recent blue-chip winners like Coca-Cola and 3M.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lagged even more after President Trump hinted that his upcoming meeting with China’s Xi Jinping “might not happen,” briefly denting risk appetite.

Despite the cautious tone, traders remain focused on the weeks ahead, with Tesla’s earnings due after the bell kicking off the highly anticipated reporting season for the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap techs.

On the day, small caps led the declines, with the most-shorted stocks logging their fifth straight drop since “Liberation Day.” 

Bond yields slipped further, the dollar was flat, and gold and silver managed modest rebounds after Tuesday’s rout. Bitcoin, meanwhile, gave back its overnight gains, sliding back toward $108,000.

After this bumpy session, can coming mega-cap earnings and inflation data steady investor nerves—or will another round of high-profile misses rattle markets again?

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Dow Shines On GM Strength; Gold And Silver Slammed

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day on a mixed footing as investors digested a fresh round of corporate earnings and took a breather from the prior session’s rally.

The industrial and consumer names led the way, with General Motors stealing the spotlight—its stock surged more than 13% after the automaker raised its full-year outlook and topped quarterly estimates with its strongest results since 2017.

Coca-Cola and 3M followed suit, climbing 3% and 2%, respectively, after both companies posted better-than-expected profits and reaffirmed upbeat guidance for the year.

Traders are navigating a packed earnings week, with Netflix set to report after the bell and Tesla due up Wednesday.

So far, the results have given markets plenty to cheer about—roughly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies reporting have beaten expectations, extending the momentum from an already strong start to earnings season.

Adding to the optimism is speculation that the Federal Reserve could deliver another quarter-point rate cut at its late-October meeting, while Friday’s CPI report will provide the latest checkpoint on inflation pressures.

But volatility made a strong return by the afternoon. Gold plunged 6.3%, and silver tumbled 8.7%—their biggest drop in years—after months of enormous gains. However, Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish long-term outlook of $4,900.

For sure, a correction was likely overdue following gold’s 67% and silver’s 81% year-to-date surges. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rallied sharply earlier in the session before fading after President Trump suggested his meeting with China’s Xi may be postponed, sending risk assets wobbling again.

Bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury extending its slide below 4%, while the dollar strengthened for the third straight day.

After such a wild session, will earnings keep providing a tailwind—or is the market showing signs of reaching its near-term limit?

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Gold Soars And Yields Drop As Stocks Rip Higher

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks burst out of the gate this morning, with major indexes surging as traders turned their attention to a heavy week of earnings reports, fresh inflation data, and growing hopes that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown might finally wrap up.

Optimism got an extra boost after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said he expects the shutdown “to end sometime this week,” suggesting moderate Democrats could help strike a deal to reopen the government, now in its 20th day.

The upbeat tone follows a turbulent week marked by trade tensions, regional bank jitters, and weakness in AI stocks. Still, Wall Street is finding its footing again thanks to resilient bank earnings, cooling yields, and improving sentiment.

All eyes now turn to a packed earnings calendar—with Tesla, Netflix, Intel, and Coca-Cola among the big names reporting—as investors look for confirmation that corporate profits remain on solid ground.

By midday, the S&P 500 had jumped over 2% from Thursday’s lows, powered by short squeezing and a rebound in regional financials.

The “Mag 7” stocks outperformed the broader S&P once again, helped by easing yields, with the 10-year Treasury sliding back below 4%.

Gold stole the spotlight, soaring nearly 4%, while silver climbed modestly. Even bitcoin got in on the action, bouncing roughly 4% to approach $111,000 despite a stronger dollar.

With earnings season heating up and talk of a shutdown resolution lifting spirits, can the market keep this momentum going through the end of October—or will volatility make an untimely return?

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