Markets Tread Water Ahead Of Fed, Earnings, And Data Storm

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The week started on a cautious note as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all opened in positive territory, but by the end of the session, Wall Street turned in a “nothingburger” performance.

Despite an early rebound, the Dow lost steam later and slipped back, joining the other indexes in delivering a pretty uneventful day.

Traders didn’t seem overly excited about the much-anticipated U.S.–EU trade deal, even though it marked a big shift: Trump’s headline-grabbing threat of a 35% tariff on European goods was dialed back to a more manageable 15%. That’s still a hefty jump from where we started negotiations, but it’s seen as a win in terms of calming trade tensions.

Looking ahead, there’s a packed calendar: earnings from major tech names, a key Fed meeting wrapping up Wednesday, Trump’s tariff deadline on Friday, and crucial inflation data all on deck.

More than 150 S&P 500 companies—featuring the big “Mag 7”—will be reporting, so expect a lot of focus on what they say about AI spending and whether those investments are paying off.

This week also brings GDP numbers, personal consumption (PCE) inflation data, and the all-important jobs report. With so much uncertainty in the air, traders know a breakout—higher or lower—could be just around the corner.

Elsewhere, the most shorted stocks extended their slide, bond yields were mixed, and the Fed isn’t expected to cut rates. The dollar surged thanks to the trade agreement, which pushed gold lower. Bitcoin gave up its early rally, but still found support around $118,000.

With a loaded lineup of news ahead, will the markets finally make a move—or is this holding pattern here to stay?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/25/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (256 vs. 266 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 25, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

MARKET RALLIES INTO WEEK’S END, BUT EU TRADE DEADLINE STILL LOOMS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes kicked off the final trading day of the week on a high note, looking set to close out with solid gains. The S&P 500 led the way, while Small Caps and the Nasdaq lagged a bit.

Thursday marked the S&P 500’s 13th record close of the year—and impressively, four of those records came just this week. The Nasdaq wasn’t far behind, notching three new all-time highs of its own.

A strong earnings season has been a real boost, especially thanks to standout reports from Alphabet and Verizon, whose shares jumped 4% and 5% for the week. As of now, over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies reporting have topped Wall Street’s expectations—a stat that’s fueling even more optimism.

The fundamentals are pretty friendly for bulls right now: inflation is steady, interest rates are staying in their range, and corporate earnings are showing a solid uptrend. Add to that some recent progress on trade agreements—including with Japan—and the market mood has definitely brightened.

The one big question mark is whether the U.S. can hammer out a deal with the European Union before the August 1 deadline. That remains the market’s biggest unknown, but optimism is still holding up.

For the week, bond yields were mixed, the dollar regained some ground, gold slid for the third day in a row, and Bitcoin continued a two-week slide.

With so much going right for the bulls but that EU trade deadline still looming, I am pondering whether the good vibes will keep rolling—or could if the unresolved trade talks will trip up this rally?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/24/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 24, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.12% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Dow Slips As S&P And Nasdaq Barely Hold Early Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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It was a turnaround kind of day for the markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq started strong—both riding early gains—while the Dow lagged, dragged down by IBM’s 10% tumble after missing revenue targets.

Big moves from the tech giants shaped the action: Alphabet popped 2% after beating Q2 revenue estimates, giving a boost to both the S&P and Nasdaq. Tesla, on the other hand, dropped 7% as auto sales disappointed for the second quarter in a row, putting a lid on broader index gains.

Traders also kept one eye on the ongoing standoff between Trump and the Fed. With Trump set to visit the Fed tomorrow, the tension is ramping up, especially as he keeps the pressure on Chairman Powell.

Helping sentiment this morning was a Financial Times report—confirmed by Bloomberg—that the U.S. is nearing a trade deal with the EU, which could see tariffs on imports climb to 15%.

As the day wore on, enthusiasm fizzled. A midday short squeeze gave the indexes a quick lift, but only the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to eke out slim gains.

Small caps lagged, and bond yields rose—giving the dollar a modest bump but dragging gold prices lower. Meanwhile, Bitcoin bounced back after a rough overnight stretch.

All in all, it was a session stuck in uncertainty, with the market treading water once the closing bell rang.

With earnings season heating up, Fed drama brewing, and global trade talks hanging in the balance, will markets finally break out of this holding pattern—or are we in for more sideways churn?

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Dow Pops After Trump Strikes Major Japan Trade Deal

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got a jolt this morning after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, sending the Dow up more than 200 points out of the gate.

Hopes are running high that this “massive” agreement, which introduces a 15% tariff on Japanese goods instead of the 25% that was originally on the table, could spark even more deals down the road. Trump also mentioned ongoing talks with the EU, aiming for another breakthrough before the August 1 deadline.

The S&P 500 followed the Dow’s lead, but the Nasdaq took its time, barely moving until it finally got a lift later in the session.

All eyes are now on Alphabet and Tesla, with both set to report earnings after the closing bell. As the first of the mega-cap techs to release results, their numbers could set the tone for the rest of earnings season.

Elsewhere, market sentiment brightened thanks to the Japan deal, even though U.S. existing home sales fell short of expectations and took some wind out of the macro surprise index.

The most shorted stocks had a wild ride but ended up helping the broader market, despite rising bond yields.

The dollar continued to slide, but that didn’t give a boost to gold this time, which ended the day lower. Bitcoin dipped but found its footing at around $118,000.

With so much riding on the next big earnings reports, will tomorrow’s market direction hinge on how Alphabet and Tesla perform after the bell?

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