ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 19, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD, SILVER RIP HIGHER WHILE SHORT SQUEEZE RALLY ROLLS ON 

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kept climbing, building on a record-setting week after the Fed finally delivered its much-anticipated rate cut.

As expected, the decision to lower the benchmark rate by a quarter point gave equities another leg up—even if Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the move a “risk management cut” and made it clear this isn’t the start of a freewheeling cutting cycle.

Apple led today’s winner list with a 1.4% gain as the new iPhone hit stores, and Tesla climbed 2%.

All the major indexes ended the week on a strong note: the S&P 500 and Dow added around 1%, the Nasdaq surged nearly 2%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed, notching its seventh weekly win in a row.

Stubborn inflation and a solid but slightly slowing labor market helped push the Fed to act, but bond yields actually rose for the week—supporting a relentless rally in the most shorted stocks and the Mag 7 basket.

The dollar advanced for a third day, gold capped a fifth straight weekly gain at a new high, and even silver broke out with a 2.7% jump. Bitcoin, meanwhile, cooled off and drifted down to $115k after hitting $118k Thursday.

So far, September has defied its reputation for market whiplash, but with another week and a half to go, will this steady run hold up—or is another bout of volatility right around the corner?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/18/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 18, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.86% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Fed’s Measured Cut Lifts Markets, Intel Leaps On Nvidia Deal

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

All the major indexes soared to fresh record highs today as traders rotated back into tech stocks, following the Fed’s rate cut and more hints that further cuts are coming this year.

Intel stole the spotlight, popping 26% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment and a new partnership on data center and PC products—Nvidia shares jumped over 3% on the news.

Yesterday’s volatility after the Fed’s move settled down, even if Fed Chair Powell was quick to tamp down hopes for an aggressive rate-cutting spree. While policymakers expect two more cuts this year and just one for 2026, traders had hoped for a little more action next year.

It looks like the Fed’s measured approach—cutting 0.25% this week—reflects stubborn inflation and a softer job market. Rather than a pivot, the central bank is clearly choosing “go slow and watch the data.”

The Mag 7 stocks continued to outperform, and heavily shorted names extended their win streak.

Bond yields resumed their climb, helping the dollar to a second straight day of gains. That kept gold flattish, but bitcoin closed at a one-month high north of $118k.

With a massive options expiration on tap tomorrow, will bullish vibes keep powering this run, or are we due for a shake-up?

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Fed Cuts But Markets Waver On Mixed Signals 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The morning started off mixed as traders waited on the Fed’s policy announcement, and there was no shortage of big headlines.

Nvidia dipped after word got out that China is blocking its chips, while all eyes were on Jerome Powell for clues about the interest rate outlook and the state of the economy.

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% and signaled two more cuts may be on deck this year. Powell called it a “risk management” move, but confusion set in after the Fed also raised its growth and inflation forecasts—that cocktail left traders with more questions than answers.

Only the Dow managed to end in the green, while the S&P and Nasdaq lost ground. Bond yields and the dollar whipped around, and gold gave back some recent gains after a wild ride. Bitcoin had a volatile day too, recovering a bit before settling lower.

So, with the Fed now officially back in easing mode, will easier money keep the bulls in charge from here—or does the mixed outlook mean more sideways action ahead?

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Stocks Wobble With Mixed Data As Dollar Slides, Gold Soars

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks wobbled this morning as traders kept one eye on the Fed meeting and the other on fresh headlines from the U.S.-China trade front.

Oracle stood out, climbing 4% after word got out the company will help keep TikTok running in the U.S. as part of a newly confirmed “trusted technology provider” partnership.

The deal came together after U.S. and Chinese officials wrapped up two days of talks and struck a “framework” agreement for TikTok, just ahead of the divest-or-shut-down deadline. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the tone was positive and that China now senses a broader trade deal may be possible.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s big decision is just a day away, with markets fully expecting at least a quarter-point rate cut. Still, traders will be listening closely to Jerome Powell’s press conference for any hints on what comes next.

Economic data was a mixed bag: strong retail sales and factory output, but import/export prices were all over the place and homebuilder sentiment stayed weak, leaving the indexes moderately in the red by the close.

Mag 7 stocks again outperformed, gold smashed through $3,700 to a new high as the dollar slid, and bitcoin ripped higher before hitting resistance.

So, with the Fed in the hot seat, will a rate cut tomorrow put wind in the market’s sails—or will investors keep treading water?

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S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold, Set Records As Trade Talks Lift Sentiment

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes tried to add to last week’s gains today, driven by upbeat headlines from the latest U.S.-China trade talks and traders bracing for the Fed’s big meeting on rates.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq even climbed to new record highs, powered by strong showings in the tech sector and hints from President Trump that discussions with China were “going well.”

U.S. and Chinese officials wrapped up another round of talks, working through tariffs and the TikTok deadline. Trump’s social media post echoed optimism on progress, but he warned that the U.S. could still push ahead with a TikTok ban if China keeps pressing for tariff relief and tech concessions.

Meanwhile, China’s regulator took aim at Nvidia over antitrust concerns, sending shares down nearly 2%. On the flip side, Tesla popped 7% after Elon Musk revealed his biggest-ever open market stock buy.

Today’s action followed a week of softer labor market data and calm inflation, helping fuel hopes for a Fed rate cut Wednesday. Futures markets now put the odds at 96% for a quarter-point cut, while the odds for a bigger move have faded fast.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar hit a two-month low, and the Mag 7 extended their lead over the rest of the market—highlighting how the rally is anything but broad-based.

Gold notched another record close, running with global liquidity, while bitcoin gave back recent gains.

With retail sales on tap tomorrow and the Fed on deck Wednesday, is Wall Street about to get another dose of “buy the rumor, sell the fact?”

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