Gold & Silver Shine While Stocks Whine

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got hit again, and this time the culprit was clear: people are suddenly side eyeing those sky-high AI valuations.

Nvidia dropped another 2% (now down 10% this month) ahead of its big earnings on Wednesday, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 felt the heat too—Amazon and Microsoft both bled.

Bitcoin even dipped below $90K for a hot second, which felt like the market flashing a giant “risk-off” sign.

Outside of tech, Home Depot whiffed on earnings and slashed guidance, so that didn’t help the mood.

The three major indexes all closed red, with the S&P 500 now on a four-day losing streak. Small caps held up better than the Nasdaq (short squeeze magic), but everything still finished below their 50-day moving averages.

The December rate-cut odds have plunged from 90%+ a month ago to roughly 50-50 today, so the “Fed put” feels a little shaky. Bond yields were all over the place, and the dollar just kind of floated.

On the bright side, our portfolios still squeaked out a green day thanks to the shiny stuff: Gold bounced hard off the $4,000 level, silver jumped 1.4%, and bitcoin roared back after that brief dip (ETF outflows slowed, so the panic selling eased).

Bottom line? We’re stuck in this weird loop until we get some data that’s decent on growth but tame on inflation—basically the Goldilocks combo that calms stagflation worries and keeps the Fed cutting. Until then, it’s chop, chop, chop.

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Tech Giants Weigh Down Majors As Key Levels Break

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks bounced around the flat line early in the day as investors braced for pivotal Nvidia earnings and the first jobs report since the government shutdown, but things turned south into the close as negative sentiment took over.

While Alphabet popped 5% on news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the tech giant, it wasn’t enough to turn the tide for the broader market, with major averages breaking through key technical support and closing solidly in the red.

Many on Wall Street took comfort in Alphabet’s strength, viewing it as a vote of confidence in the AI narrative from Berkshire’s stock-picking crew, though Warren Buffett himself likely wasn’t behind the move.

Nvidia drifted lower ahead of its big report, and the rest of the artificial intelligence trade followed suit, as worries about stretched valuations lingered.

Rate cut odds for December slipped again after stronger-than-expected NY Manufacturing data and an uptick in construction spending.

The dollar bounced back, yields eased only slightly, and gold and silver both lost ground, with the yellow metal finding support around $4,000. Bitcoin kept falling, triggering a bearish “death cross” but, as history reminds us, that sometimes marks a bottom.

Will this gloomy tone reverse if Nvidia or the jobs data delivers a positive surprise, or are we in for another choppy ride as the year winds down?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/14/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (278 vs. 274 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 14, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WALL STREET STUMBLES AFTER FED RATE CUT ODDS PLUNGE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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U.S. stocks slid again right after the opening bell, capping off a tough couple of days and notching their worst single day drop since early October.

The Dow erased nearly 800 points, undoing Wednesday’s gains and the recent milestone push above 48,000, while the Nasdaq fell more than 2%, putting its impressive seven-week winning streak at risk as technology giants took heavy losses.

Wall Street’s anxiety was stoked by valuation concerns in artificial intelligence stocks (with Oracle in particular rattling investors), plus rising debt levels and massive spending for future AI infrastructure.

On top of this, doubts are mounting about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December—rate cut odds have plunged from over 95% to just above 51% in recent weeks, leaving traders on edge about the path forward.

The end of the government shutdown was expected to bring clarity, but instead there’s worry some economic data may never be released.

Technical support helped slow the decline, with the S&P 500 and Mag 7 basket bouncing back slightly but still ending the week flat.

Outside equities, gold managed to rebound 2% for the week and break its losing streak, while silver outperformed despite late-week selling.

Bitcoin fell to $94k—its lowest in six months—as outflows from bitcoin ETFs accelerated and the coin separated from its usual correlation with the Nasdaq.

Will next week’s sessions offer more clarity, or is uncertainty going to be the market’s constant companion as we approach year-end?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/13/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 13, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.93% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech Tumbles As Markets “Sell The Fact” On Reopening

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today was the classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of session: markets opened lower and just kept sliding, even as the long-awaited government re-opening failed to inspire the bulls.

Tech and AI names took the brunt of the selling, with the Nasdaq locking in its third straight decline, led down by heavyweights like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Alphabet.

This week’s action shows a clear split—while health care and other value sectors managed to hold up earlier in the week, today everything went south, partly because traders were left flying blind with no new jobs or inflation data following the extended government pause.

The lack of fresh economic reports left everyone guessing about the Fed’s next move and increased anxiety about the rate outlook.

AI favorites in the Mag 7 basket got whacked for a third straight day, while rising bond yields and a sliding dollar couldn’t keep gold shining; even the precious metal dipped, though not nearly as much as stocks, and remains solidly up year-to-date.

Bitcoin lost its $100k handle before bouncing at $107k.

Is this growing caution just a temporary blip, or does it mark a shift to a rougher, more uncertain market as year-end approaches?

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