Bitcoin Blasts Past $121K As Wall Street Shrugs Off Shutdown Worries

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

It was another quiet start for the markets, with traders mostly brushing off worries about the U.S. government shutdown, now in its second day.

The Nasdaq nudged up 0.39%, hitting a fresh intraday high thanks to Nvidia, which continues to attract heavy investment and reached its own record high.

Yesterday’s gains across the major indexes were fueled by optimism that the funding lapse won’t last long or do much damage to the economy. Historically, these shutdowns haven’t had a major impact on equity performance, and so far, this one seems to be following that pattern.

Still, the big question is: how long will this political standoff drag on? With the Senate taking Thursday off for Yom Kippur, the earliest next vote could be Friday. Prediction markets are leaning toward a shutdown that could stretch close to two weeks.

Despite the drama in Washington, the indexes managed to end the day in the green again. Even the most shorted stocks got a lift.

Tesla, however, took a 5% hit after an early rally fizzled out. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants still outperformed the rest of the S&P 500, but only slightly.

Bond yields were mixed, and the dollar jumped for no clear reason, which put pressure on gold. The metal tried to break past $3,900 but couldn’t quite make it.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged to $121,000—a level not seen since mid-August.

So, here’s the question: Is digital gold finally syncing back up with global liquidity again?

Read More

Data Delays, Shutdown, And Gold Rush Shape Early October

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a shaky start as the latest U.S. government shutdown brought uncertainty to Wall Street, with traders focused on how long the funding gap might last—and what it could mean for the economy.

The shutdown, triggered by a breakdown in Senate talks over a temporary spending bill, spotlights key issues like healthcare tax credits and sets the stage for delays in crucial economic data releases.

Historically, the market tends to shrug off shutdowns, but with worries swirling about a softening job market, inflation risk, and frothy stock valuations, investors are paying closer attention this time.

A longer shutdown could keep the Fed guessing on rates, especially since key reports like nonfarm payrolls won’t hit this week.

Today’s private payrolls report showed a surprise loss of jobs—the worst since early 2023—making it even trickier for the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again soon.

But for now, stocks finished in the green, even as the dollar slid and yields dipped.

Gold and silver flexed their safe-haven muscles by closing in on record highs, while bitcoin jumped above $118k.

With more than 40% of traders expecting this shutdown to stretch past mid-October, the big question is:

Will missing data and new earnings do enough to lift the mood, or will the market’s nerves get the best of it?

Read More

Precious Metals Shine In A Standout Month For Gold And Silver 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Equites spent most of the day underwater as Wall Street braced for a possible government shutdown, but late-day buying helped the major indexes squeeze out a green close and cap off a better-than-usual September.

Unlike most years, the market sidestepped the usual seasonal weakness—even as headlines warned that this time a shutdown might trigger more volatility, given rising fears about the labor market, stubborn inflation, and high valuations.

While shutdowns rarely move markets for long, traders worry this one could be different—especially since it could delay crucial economic data, like Friday’s jobs report.

The threat of a credit downgrade and talk of mass federal layoffs didn’t help the mood, but Big Tech still powered ahead: the Mag 7 group outperformed, and tech finished far ahead of the rest of the S&P sectors this month.

Bond yields were mixed, but precious metals stole the show. Gold notched its best month since 2011, leaping nearly 12% to a new record, and silver rallied 17%.

Bitcoin had a bumpy ride but clawed back end-of-month gains, while its ETF trailed the big gains in metals.

Now that September’s chill is behind us, October could bring its own tricks. Can the market keep surprising the skeptics—and what happens if the shutdown drags on?

Read More

Metals Rally While Shutdown Odds Soar

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq started strong today as Wall Street tried to bounce back from last week’s AI scare.

Nvidia led the charge, rallying just over 2% after its partnership with OpenAI sparked new debate about whether big infrastructure spending can keep the AI boom alive.

Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology both jumped too, giving the Nasdaq an extra boost thanks to ongoing big-ticket investments in the sector.

But while stocks managed modest gains, all eyes are glued to Washington as another government shutdown looms.

President Trump even warned mass federal layoffs could happen if Congress doesn’t hash out a deal before Tuesday’s midnight deadline—odds now stand at 77% for a shutdown.

Precious metals didn’t disappoint either.

Gold climbed 1.3% to fresh record highs, silver sliced through $47 to gain 1.5%, and copper raced ahead more than 3% on supply worries. Even bitcoin shook off its funk, with its ARKB ETF jumping nearly 5%.

So, here’s the big question: Can metals hold up if a government shutdown sets off bigger market ripples?

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/26/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (287 vs. 284 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 26, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RATE CUT BETS INTACT AS GOLD AND SILVER SHINE, SHUTDOWN ODDS LOOM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow and S&P 500 got off to a solid start after August’s PCE inflation numbers landed right in line with expectations.

Core inflation ran at 2.9% over the past year—exactly what Wall Street had penciled in—and the broader index came in at 2.7%. Both figures suggest that the Fed’s path for two more rate cuts before year-end is still on track.

After a shaky week, stocks finally tipped higher, snapping a three-day losing streak as dip buyers jumped back in—especially in the Nasdaq, which perked up late in the day.

The jobs data and a stronger GDP reading yesterday put a small damper on bulls but didn’t shake the underlying optimism.

Bond yields held steady, gold smashed through $3,800 (though closed just below), silver cruised over $46, and bitcoin paced quietly.

With shutdown worries running hotter than ever—odds are over 80% now—everyone’s wondering if history will repeat, since past shutdowns have oddly fueled bullish rallies.

Is this calm just the eye of the storm, or will a government shutdown flip the script once again?

Read More