RATE CUT BETS INTACT AS GOLD AND SILVER SHINE, SHUTDOWN ODDS LOOM
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
The Dow and S&P 500 got off to a solid start after August’s PCE inflation numbers landed right in line with expectations.
Core inflation ran at 2.9% over the past year—exactly what Wall Street had penciled in—and the broader index came in at 2.7%. Both figures suggest that the Fed’s path for two more rate cuts before year-end is still on track.
After a shaky week, stocks finally tipped higher, snapping a three-day losing streak as dip buyers jumped back in—especially in the Nasdaq, which perked up late in the day.
The jobs data and a stronger GDP reading yesterday put a small damper on bulls but didn’t shake the underlying optimism.
Bond yields held steady, gold smashed through $3,800 (though closed just below), silver cruised over $46, and bitcoin paced quietly.
With shutdown worries running hotter than ever—odds are over 80% now—everyone’s wondering if history will repeat, since past shutdowns have oddly fueled bullish rallies.
Is this calm just the eye of the storm, or will a government shutdown flip the script once again?
ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 25, 2025
How to use this StatSheet:
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.05% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The link below shows all High Volume (HV) Domestic Equity ETFs. They are ranked by M-Index, which is my secret sauce for measuring momentum. Prices in all linked tables below are updated through 09/25/2025, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note that distributions are not included in the current momentum numbers.
If the TTI is above the trend line, you can use the tables in the link below to pick your winners:
This is our global guide, the International Trend Tracking Index (green). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +10.75% and has been in “Buy” mode since 5/7/2025.
The list in the link below shows the High Volume (HV) International ETFs I track for you during a Buy cycle. They are also ranked by M-Index:
This is the mother of all lists, showing all ETFs I track and how they stack up against each other. The sorting order is by M-Index too. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted for dividends.
This is where you can find HV ETFs for specific countries or regions that I watch every week. Please note that the data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions. Country funds can be wild beasts, so make sure you use a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) to protect yourself from nasty bites.
This is where you can diversify your portfolio by looking for different opportunities in various sectors of the market. The table of HV Sector ETFs in the following link covers a wide range of possibilities. The sorting order is by M-Index:
Here too, I recommend using a 10% trailing stop loss to limit your risk.
BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY
If you like getting paid for holding ETFs, here’s a list of bond and dividend paying ETFs. But before you buy them, make sure you check their momentum figures first. Then you can visit your favorite financial web site to see their yield and other details.
Please note that the data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions.
Please note that some of these funds try to beat the index they are tied to by a certain percentage. This can boost your returns, but it can also magnify your losses. So be careful and use a trailing sell stop (I suggest 10%) and be ready for some bumps along the way.
NEW SUBSCRIBER INFORMATION
To get a head start on more successful investing, please click on:
In case you missed it, you can download my latest e-book “How to beat the S&P 500…with the S&P 500,” here. If you are investing your 401k and must use mutual funds, I suggest you mainly stick with the S&P 500 as described in my book. Of course, you can always use the above tables to find sector or country ETFs that suit your taste and use the equivalent mutual funds as offered by your custodian.
Disclosure:
I must tell you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Also, they are not meant to be specific investment recommendations for you, they just show which ETFs from my universe are doing well right now.
Stocks stumbled for a third day in a row as the latest pullback in Oracle and a fresh jump in rates weighed on sentiment.
Oracle slid another 4% and is now down more than 10% from its recent high, rattled by lingering doubts about the AI story and a new sell rating from Wall Street predicting a much deeper drop ahead.
That’s triggered fresh worries that investors are overestimating how much AI deals will really move the needle for Oracle’s cloud business.
Rising yields didn’t help, as the 10-year Treasury rate ticked up to 4.18% after stronger-than-expected jobless claims and a big upward revision to second-quarter GDP.
With economic data still coming in hot, traders are getting nervous that the Fed could pause on rate cuts—pulling the rug out from under the bulls just as the market was hoping for more easing.
Caution remains high with inflation numbers due tomorrow and new jitters about a potential government shutdown swirling.
Even multiple short squeeze attempts fizzled out, leaving the bears firmly in control by the close.
The only real pockets of green came from precious metals: gold edged higher, and silver crushed a 14-year high above $45. Meanwhile, bitcoin took a nosedive below $110k as Fed cut hopes faded.
So, is this just another September shakeout—or the start of a longer stay for the bears?
The market couldn’t hold onto early gains today, as pressure on AI heavyweights like Nvidia and Oracle dragged the major indexes into the red for a second straight day.
Nvidia swung around as traders tried to make sense of its new OpenAI partnership, while Micron fell nearly 2% after its earnings and outlook failed to wow anyone. It looks like confidence in the AI trade is still getting tested.
Traders may also be taking profits with valuations high, especially after Powell flagged stretched prices at his press conference.
Add in uncertainty from jobless claims and inflation reports later this week, plus worries about a government shutdown after President Trump nixed a meeting with top congressional Democrats, and it’s no surprise the bulls couldn’t shake off the funk.
Gold finally stumbled after its hot streak, but bitcoin perked up and climbed toward $114k. The real standout was copper, with our ETF zooming almost 4% higher on supply concerns.
So, was today just a healthy pause for the bulls, or is this the start of a bigger shift as the month wraps up?
The S&P 500 started strong, hitting a new intraday high early in the session—its fourth straight record, but the Dow was leading the charge thanks to Boeing’s boost.
Boeing rallied after President Trump celebrated Uzbekistan’s $8 billion deal, and chatter about a major U.S.–China Boeing agreement kept buyers interested.
Yesterday’s breakout accelerated late as Nvidia popped almost 4% on fresh news of a $100 billion OpenAI data center partnership.
Still, with record highs coming fast, investors are keeping an eye on downside risks—like the threat of a government shutdown, given Congress’s funding gridlock and a looming September 30 deadline.
Momentum ran out after Powell’s comments on labor market weakness and uncertainty about the next rate cut. Bears seized the opportunity, major indexes turned red, and the short squeeze fizzled for the day.
Mega-cap tech suffered its worst drop since early August even as bond yields slipped. The dollar flattened out, gold set another overnight high, and bitcoin kept moving around its recent lows.
Now, traders are watching for Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s favorite inflation measure.
Will this print be the deciding factor for the next move in equities?
The week got off to a choppy start, with most major indexes opening in the red before regaining their footing.
The Nasdaq led the turnaround, clawing back above its unchanged line first and later dragging the Dow and S&P 500 along for the ride.
Despite the bounce, a looming government shutdown kept things from getting too lively—Congress still hasn’t sorted out a funding plan, and the deadline is less than a week away.
Still, stocks are coming off a strong run. Last week saw record closes for the major indexes, with the Russell 2000 small caps hitting a new high for the first time since 2021.
The Fed’s quarter-point rate cut is freshly baked in, and traders are now pricing in two more cuts by year-end and even more over 2026. But honestly, further gains will likely depend more on solid economic data than just rate moves from here.
Elsewhere, a short squeeze helped push equities higher today. Nvidia rallied 4% after announcing a strategic OpenAI tie-in, but precious metals stole the show—gold popped 2% to a fresh record above $3,780, and silver jumped over 2.5% to break the $44 mark.
Bond yields drifted a bit higher, while bitcoin dropped further, landing near $111k at a two-week low.
So far, the market’s shrugged off September’s reputation for volatility. The question is, can this momentum last through quarter’s end—or will some of these risks finally break through?
