Small Caps Squeeze, Silver $93.75 High – Metals Still Flexing

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes jumped right out of the gate, with banks and tech leading the charge as Wall Street shook off back-to-back losing days.

The real spark came from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) dropping another monster quarter—profit up 35% year-over-year—which lit a fire under the AI trade and boosted investor confidence.

Chip stocks were on fire: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 3%, Nvidia and Micron each added more than 2%, and the whole sector rode the wave.

This happened even after President Trump signed a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors (though chips tied to U.S. tech supply-chain buildout are exempt—so markets mostly shrugged).

Oil prices helped too—Brent and WTI both slid more than 4%, easing inflation worries. Plus, jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 10 came in at 198,000 (better than the 215,000 expected), giving the jobs market another thumbs-up.

Small caps outperformed big time (thanks to another juicy short squeeze), even as bond yields ticked higher. The dollar did its usual pump-and-dump and ended flat.

Metals took a breather after recent fireworks—silver touched a new intraday high of $93.75 early but swung wildly and closed about unchanged. Bitcoin tested $98K overnight before fading back to $96K.

So, what’s the biggest risk for the global economy and markets in 2026? Goldman Sachs points to geopolitics as the top threat… but if history’s any guide, it’ll probably be something nobody saw coming.

With chip stocks roaring back, small caps squeezing shorts, and metals still holding strong despite a breather, this feels like the risk-on momentum is building again for 2026.

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Banks Drag Stocks Lower – Silver +7%, Gold Above $4,600 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks opened lower for the second straight day, pulling back further from recent record levels as traders chewed on a fresh batch of earnings reports and kept one eye on geopolitical headlines.

Wells Fargo was a big laggard, dropping more than 5% after posting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Bank of America and Citigroup slipped too—even though they beat estimates—because the results weren’t strong enough to keep the market excited near all-time highs.

That added to their pain from Trump’s Friday call for credit card interest rate reform; Wells and BofA are both down roughly 7% for the week, Citigroup more than 6%.

Geopolitical noise didn’t help either: oil rose for a fifth day on worries about supply disruptions from civil unrest in Iran (a key OPEC player) and rising U.S.-Iran tensions. Plus, crunch talks are happening today between the Trump administration and officials from Greenland and Denmark over U.S. control of the territory.

By the close, those pressures kept the major indexes in the red, with the Nasdaq taking the hardest hit, the Dow holding up best, and small caps managing a small green finish.

The real bright spot?

Commodities kept shining. Silver exploded over 7% to punch through $92, gold flirted with all-time highs and closed above $4,600, copper added a solid +1.6%, and Bitcoin finally joined the party, climbing to a two-month high of $97.5K and eyeing $100K.

The commodity sector continues to steal the show almost every day—definitely the place to be right now.

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Silver Tops $89, Gold Hits Record – Metals Keep Winning

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The market opened lower and pretty much stayed that way, dragged down early by JPMorgan Chase.

Traders were digesting the latest CPI inflation data (core up 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY—both below estimates) while weighing President Trump’s push for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates.

JPMorgan’s CFO basically said the industry might fight back hard, sending the stock down more than 2%. Goldman Sachs followed with a 1%+ drop, and payment giants like Mastercard and Visa each slid around 5%.

The CPI reading (plus last week’s softer jobs report) reinforced the idea that the Fed might hold off on rate cuts at their next meeting. No big surprise—equities couldn’t shake the pressure.

In the end, the major indexes closed modestly lower. Bond yields eased, the dollar chopped sideways, and while Bitcoin and some metals finished higher, they all came off intraday highs.

Mega-caps did their usual dump-pump-dump routine with no clear direction. Gold touched a new record high before fading, and silver stole the spotlight again, topping $89 for the first time and closing up almost 2%.

To me, it feels like when stocks and most assets are drifting aimlessly, but silver’s still smashing records, the hard-asset bull is just doing its own thing… while the broader market might be getting a little tired and needs a fresh catalyst soon.

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Gold And Silver Explode As Powell Investigation Sends Shockwaves

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday after news broke that the Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, marking what many see as an escalation in President Trump’s ongoing effort to pressure the central bank.

The headlines sparked a broad selloff early on, with the Dow down nearly 500 points and the S&P 500 off about 0.5% at the day’s lows. 

Still, the market managed to recover some ground as the session wore on, led by Small Caps, and boosted by solid moves in Walmart and a few large tech names.

Even so, traders were uneasy with Trump’s separate proposal to temporarily cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a move aimed at easing costs for consumers that critics say could choke off lending and hurt banks’ bottom lines. 

The uncertainty pushed investors toward safe havens. Gold surged more than 2%, while silver absolutely stole the spotlight, rocketing nearly 7% to a record high above $85.

Copper added more than 2%, though it remained overshadowed by silver’s breakout. The dollar slumped sharply, rate‑cut odds dropped, and bond yields crept higher. 

Interestingly, the “Mag 7” finally showed some staying power, outperforming the rest of the S&P 500’s 493 stocks for the first time in a while.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin finished the day higher after whipsawing in a wild pump‑and‑dump‑and‑pump sequence that mirrored the broader market’s volatility. 

As traders look ahead, many believe the next major driver will come from AI‑related capital spending by large cloud providers — but with metals flying, the dollar slipping, and the Fed caught in political crossfire, could this uneasy mix evolve into the year’s first major turning point for markets?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/09/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (259 vs. 265 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 9, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD NEARS RECORD, SILVER SOARS 10%, AND THE BULL RUN ROLLS ON

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off the day on a strong note after the latest jobs report, with the Dow and S&P 500 both climbing into record territory before settling back a bit.

The December employment data was a mixed bag—it showed payrolls rising by 50,000, slightly below expectations for 73,000, but still signaling that the U.S. economy is moving forward, even if slowly. 

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%, surprising economists who had forecast 4.5%, which traders took as a hint that the labor market has enough resilience to support growth without overheating.

Still, given the numbers’ ambiguity, the report didn’t really clear things up for the Fed—it’s strong enough to keep policymakers cautious for now but soft enough to leave the door open to further cuts later if conditions weaken. 

Adding to the mix, the Supreme Court delayed its ruling on the legality of President Trump’s broad tariffs, leaving trade policy uncertainty lingering in the background. That decision could have far-reaching fiscal and market implications once it lands. 

For the week, all the major indexes finished higher, led by small caps, which surged 5% thanks to a hefty short squeeze.

The “Mag 7” lagged again, as the rest of the S&P 500’s 493 stocks picked up the slack.

Meanwhile, bond yields were mixed, and the dollar had a solid week—but that didn’t stop gold from charging back toward record highs. Silver stole the spotlight, soaring 10% and outpacing everything in sight, with platinum not far behind.

Copper added a respectable 3.7%, while Bitcoin ended the week roughly flat after losing steam midweek. 

With small caps ripping, metals on fire, and Bitcoin holding its ground, the setup heading into mid-January looks strong—but will the market’s broad energy and hard‑asset momentum be enough to keep the bull party going?

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