ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, June 10, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-6092011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, June 10, 2011

MAJOR MARKET ETFs IN RETREAT – NO PLACE TO HIDE

The market’s stumble into June continued all week and was only interrupted by a short pause on Thursday, when a rebound attempt gave the bulls some hope. Other than that, the bears had a firm grip on broad downward momentum.

Global growth worries were brought back to center stage when China reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus indicating a slow down. In Britain, industrial production took a turn for the worse when no change had been expected. Add to that the ever continuing debt soap opera in Europe, and you have a condition that is simply not supportive of rising equity prices.

The question remains if the major indexes can find some support before we actually slip into bear market territory. Looking at some widely followed indicators, we are getting close to a directional change.

The benchmark S&P 500 has reached a point that is within 0.64% of breaking its widely followed 200-day moving average. The Dow Jones Transportation index is equally weak and has come within 0.01% of breaking its respective trend line.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are showing similar slippage as well as a divided picture:

Domestic TTTI: +2.16% (last week +3.46%)
International TTI: -0.70% (last week +1.67%)

Yes, the international TTI actually broke below its long-term trend line today, although by only a small percentage. In order to avoid a whip-saw signal, I will watch market activity for a couple of trading days, before issuing a Sell signal for that arena, since this indicator tends to be more volatile than its domestic cousin.

The S&P 500 is now barely hanging on to a 1% gain YTD, while our ETF Model Portfolios have fared far better, as I had expected, with the Aggressive Growth (#3) and Trend Tracking Portfolios (#1) leading the pack as of today with +4.33% and +3.98% respectively.

This current U.S. economic soft patch appears to be hardening, which may very well cause this bull market to die a slow death. Now that all stimulus attempts have been wasted, we will see what is left of the real economy.

How low can we go? Some technical analysts are seeing major buying support for the S&P 500 at around the 1,250 level, which would be below its 200-day moving average of 1,259. I for one will not wait to see if buyers actually show up, should we sink to that level from the current 1,271 close.

Sell stop wise, not too much happened today, although several mutual funds broke below their predetermined sell point. On the ETF side, only VEU (from our current holdings) slipped below and will be sold on Monday, unless a solid rebound emerges.

This is the time when the rubber meets the road, and you have to be alert to changes in major market direction. While there is always the chance of a dead cat bounce, such as we saw Thursday, the odds have clearly increased that more weakness will be with us.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, monitor your sell stops and execute them when they reached their predetermined levels. Even if you follow the fundamentals, you have to admit that there are not too many arguments right this moment for much higher stock prices.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Kent:

Q: Ulli: What isn’t clear is what happens to the money from the funds that are sold in the ETF Model Portfolios?  I noticed cash percentages appear to be the same as last week, in those portfolios where funds have been sold.  If you get a chance, please clarify. Thanks!

A: Kent: Yes, I don’t really change the cash positions, since that is too cumbersome. I still show the sold positions with their value at the time of sale, but crossed out. I use that as a base for reinvestment whenever that time comes. That’s the theme I followed when I reinvested in XLV.

You are very observant!

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

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Friday, June 3, 2011

WHERE’S THE DEADCAT BOUNCE?

We left the month of May on a high note and, only one day later, stumbled into the month of June with the major indexes plunging to their lowest levels since last summer. The weak ADP report was the main culprit and forced economists to hastily revise their payroll growth estimates.

Other economic reports lacked positives and combined forces by leaving the market in the dust, as I posted on Tuesday. Usually, a sharp sell-off is followed by a bounce, but that did not happen, very likely in anticipation of Friday’s uncertain jobs report.

While the markets held fairly steady on Thursday, a rebound never materialized. Today’s jobs numbers showed that the economy has hit “a brick wall,” as one analyst put it. In light of the fact that only 54,000 new jobs were created, and the unemployment rate inched up to 9.1%, it was no surprise to see the major indexes head straight down at the opening.

Rally attempts were rebuffed in the end, and the S&P 500 closed down 2.5% in his holiday shortened week. Technically speaking, some damage was done as the S&P broke through its 50-day moving average and a key support level at 1,310. For the time being, at least the psychologically important 1,300 level held – but barely.

Opinions abound as to how much of an economic slowdown we can expect and if further weakness is in the cards. No one knows of course, but the markets certainly will adjust to a life with less growth. That means any further disappointments with upcoming economic reports are likely to be reflected in softer stock prices or, depending on the severity, a total trend reversal. Any more stress from the European debt crisis will very likely accelerate this process.

While our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) remain in bullish territory, they have moved closer to their long-term trend lines as today’s numbers show:

Domestic TTTI: +3.46% (last week +4.47%)

International TTI: +1.67% (last week +2.38%)

None of next week’s economic reports due out will have the same impact as today’s jobs report. The markets should be able to find some footing, as long as outside events, such as the European debt soap opera, are not exerting too much undue influence on the domestic scene.

Again, this is the time to watch your trailing sell stops and execute them, if you do your own investing. Don’t take any chances by hoping that a major trend reversal can’t happen. It most certainly can; history has shown us that it pays to be prepared.

Ulli…

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Back issues of the Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Do you have a question regarding your mutual fund investments?

I will always give you my unbiased and honest opinion. How can you be sure?

First, this is a free newsletter and it will not affect my renewal rates.

Second, I am not running for office and do not have to hide my thoughts in evasive language designed to obscure what I really mean.

So, feel free to send your questions to: ulli@successful-investment.com

All Reader Q & A’s for this Buy Cycle are now listed at our web site! Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm

We are located at:

18685 A-Main Street, #606

Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Until next week.

Ulli…

Return to Newsletter Archive

=============================

Ulli G. Niemann

Registered Investment Advisor

714.841.5804

http://www.successful-investment.com

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Friday, May 27, 2011

AGAINST THE WIND

It was a repeat performance of the prior week, as the markets started out to the downside on Monday and spent the last four trading days trying to climb back. In the case of the S&P 500, it was aimless meandering within a narrow trading range as the index ended up giving back 2 points.

The entire month, the major indexes have been tiptoeing on a balance beam, and it appeared that at anytime the downside could come into play big time. It did not happen yet, but even Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini, chimed in with a similar tune in “Stocks teetering on ‘tipping point’ of correction.”

However, for May it looks as though the market will have its first down month since November. Economically speaking, there were no reports with any star power effect that could have moved the indexes; it was simply mediocre news, not enough to make a difference one way or the other.

Today’s figures reflected that going nowhere attitude as the dollar was lower, pending home sales dove, but consumer sentiment rose. Maybe the European debt crises has traders on edge as concerns about a Greek default remain headline news, while Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Belgium are on deck waiting for their turn in the dubious spotlight.

The small movement of our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) reflected market sentiment, and we remain fairly close to last week’s numbers as far as distance to the long-term trend lines is concerned:

Domestic TTTI: +4.47% (last week +4.41%)
International TTI: +2.38% (last week +2.59%)

The markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day weekend after which will be facing a good sized menu of economic reports, including Consumer Confidence, Construction spending, Auto sales, Initial claims and Productivity, just to name a few.

The highlight will be Friday’s unemployment report, which may shed some light as to whether economic conditions are worsening or holding steady.

Have a pleasant Memorial Day weekend.

Ulli…

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Back issues of the Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Do you have a question regarding your mutual fund investments?

I will always give you my unbiased and honest opinion. How can you be sure?

First, this is a free newsletter and it will not affect my renewal rates.

Second, I am not running for office and do not have to hide my thoughts in evasive language designed to obscure what I really mean.

So, feel free to send your questions to: ulli@successful-investment.com

All Reader Q & A’s for this Buy Cycle are now listed at our web site! Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm

We are located at:

18685 A-Main Street, #606
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Until next week.

Ulli…

Return to Newsletter Archive

=============================
Ulli G. Niemann
Registered Investment Advisor
714.841.5804
http://www.successful-investment.com
=============================

Friday, May 20, 2011

A BULL IN THE HEADLIGHTS

This past week’s market activity resembled the same theme as we’ve seen lately. An early sell-off followed by a recovery attempt, and then a close within a few points of the unchanged line.

While it was a volatile ride again, the bulls appeared to be frozen and can’t seem to find their bearings thereby yielding the trading floor to the bearish crowd. However, neither bulls nor bears have been making any serious headway, which means we’re stuck in no man’s land.

While first quarter earnings were strong, recent economic data were not exactly a chest pounding event keeping the markets in neutral.

Taking center stage was the European debt crisis, which seems to be on the cusp of a major event taking place. First, new words like “re-profiling” and “soft restructuring” were introduced this week intended to put some lip stick on that pig. Of course, everybody knows that over-indebted countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal can’t and won’t pay back the burden the ECB has put on them.

It’s just a matter of time, before the first default takes place. Second, Fitch’s downgrade of Greek debt today pushed the Euro lower against the dollar, while gold rallied sharply with the gold ETF (GLD) adding +1.26% today. Again, gold functions not as much as a hedge against inflation but against uncertainty, of which we are seeing plenty with the euro zone debt crisis. Today’s move in gold makes me wonder what that precious metal will do in terms of rallying once an actual default occurs and how much of that bullishness will affect the dollar. The problems

are not just with the countries mentioned above. As I am writing this, I am watching a live feed from Spain with huge demonstrations, which already have spilled over into Italy.

In regards to our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), the picture remains murky and divided as the domestic TTI stayed about even, while its international counterpart lost. Here are the week ending numbers as they relate to the respective long-term trend lines:

Domestic TTTI: +4.41% (last week +4.58%)
International TTI: +2.59% (last week +3.31%)

Next week, we’ll be facing economic reports about New Home Sales, Durable Orders, GDP and Personal Income, just to name a few. Throw in more unexpected news from the euro zone, and you have a recipe where anything goes.

In case there are any effects on our sell stops, I will update those via a blog post. Be sure to tune in regularly.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

————————————————————-

Back issues of the Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Do you have a question regarding your mutual fund investments?

I will always give you my unbiased and honest opinion. How can you be sure?

First, this is a free newsletter and it will not affect my renewal rates.

Second, I am not running for office and do not have to hide my thoughts in evasive language designed to obscure what I really mean.

So, feel free to send your questions to: ulli@successful-investment.com

All Reader Q & A’s for this Buy Cycle are now listed at our web site! Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm

We are located at:

18685 A-Main Street, #606
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Until next week.

Ulli…

Return to Newsletter Archive

=============================
Ulli G. Niemann
Registered Investment Advisor
714.841.5804
http://www.successful-investment.com
=============================