Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 9/22/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 22, 2011


If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back below its long term trend line (red) by -0.10%.

Read More

Global ETFs Hammered; Domestic TTI Breaks Back Into Bear Territory

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Please note that Gold and Oil prices in above chart reflect the evening session]

Today, there was simply no place to hide, unless you were invested 100% in U.S. Treasuries and/or some selected Bond ETFs. Just about all other asset classes got taken to the barn and spanked in no particular order.

It was relentless selling around the globe with the Dow being down at one point by over 500 points. The only positive was that the major indexes managed a rebound towards the end of the session and closed up from their worst levels of the day.

You could call it a perfect storm, as a variety of news items combined forces and left the bears pounding their chest in victory.

Fed chairman Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday about “significant downside risks” to economic growth” including “strains in global financial markets” were stronger words as those used in the past and instantly shifted traders’ worries into high gear. As a result, the Dow dropped over 300 points right at the open, and it went downhill from there.

Read More

High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 9/21/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

With yesterday’s sell off, as a result of the Fed’s “stimulus” not being perceived as large and dramatic enough, the S&P 500 has given back -1.85% since last week’s report.

This weakness was immediately reflected in the momentum numbers and affected rankings above and below the cutline. We held steady in terms of positioning, as only 7 ETFs remain above the line and in bullish territory, while all others roam around with the bears below the line.

As I mentioned last week, despite the various rebound attempts, weakness prevails in the equity arena. I still consider the current market environment to be a traders market and not one for long term investors due to its extreme volatile nature. A long term trend in either direction can simply not yet be identified without wild guesswork.

To repeat, the High Volume ETF Cutline report includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Take a look at the most recent ETF Cutline Report:

Read More

Equity ETFs Wobble, Then Turn Into A Sell Fest

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

While doing what is expected can be a good thing, it can also backfire, especially when Wall Street is clamoring for a serious assist from the Fed to boost the ailing economy one more time.

Well, that did not happen, and disappointment set in pulling the rug out from any early upward momentum. As the chart from MarketWatch.com above shows, we closed at the lows of the day, which may invite more selling tomorrow.

The Fed’s Operation Twist is designed to keep long-term rates low hoping/wishing to jumpstart the economy. The FOMC in its notes remarked that economic weakness has continued, unemployment remains high and housing is a disaster. Also, further downside risks to the economy remain while global financial markets are strained.

While that is really nothing new, it makes it official and traders on Wall Street did not like it one bit, and selling accelerated during the last hour.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 9/20/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Gold slipped while the S&P 500 gained +2.47% since last Wednesday’s report. As a result, some of our ETF Model Portfolios retreated as well, as the roller coaster ride in the markets continued.

Currently, it’s all about interpretation of the latest news about Greece & Co., while domestic weak economic reports have been mainly shrugged off. Uncertainty continues, and Wall Street traders will eagerly await the outcome of the Fed meeting later on today.

This is the time to just sit and wait until we can better evaluate the major trend. All eyes are on Fed chief Bernanke and, to my way of thinking, nothing less than a grand, unexpected assist will move the major indexes higher. Anything less than that will likely be met with disappointment resulting in a sell-off.

Take a look at this week’s model portfolios:

Read More

Dying Into The Close—Major Market ETFs Surrender Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

If you were a bull, you must have been excited to watch the rally unfold as all major market ETFs gained strongly.

But, what starts well does not always end well. This was the case today, as the morning rebound succumbed to profit taking in the afternoon in anticipation of what the Fed might announce tomorrow.

Will it be the widely anticipated “operation twist” to attempt to pull the economy out of the doldrums? In case you missed it, operation twist involves the Fed selling short-term assets and reinvesting the proceeds to buy longer term durations with the goal of limiting pressure on long-term rates.

Or, will they go all out with some type of shock-and-awe effect? If they do, there is a good chance that the markets will react positively; if they don’t, you might just see a sell-off as disappointment is sure to spread.

Not helping the rebound in the afternoon were news reports questioning as to whether Greece might get a short-term injection of cash to prevent a default on its bonds.

It’s uncertainty and rumors all of the time. Let’s hope the Fed’s action, or lack thereof, can give us some clue as to the major direction of the market. If not, we may be stuck in this trading range for a while longer.