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ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 11, 2025

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GOLD SHINES AS EQUITIES SWING AND INFLATION HITS RECORD HIGHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The stock market experienced another volatile opening, with equities swinging sharply due to worse-than-expected consumer sentiment for April. The index dropped from March’s 57.0 to 50.8, significantly below the expected 54.6.

Inflation concerns surged, rising from 5% in March to 6.7% in April, marking the highest level since November 1981. Other survey measures also indicated deterioration.

However, Producer Prices saw the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 0.4% month-over-month decrease, bringing the year-over-year index down to 2.7%.

This week has been one of the most volatile in Wall Street history. Trade policy uncertainties have caused major indexes to remain solidly in the red for 2025, despite a rebound this week.

The US Macro Surprise Index, which had bounced off its lows in March, reversed and reached its weakest point since September. Financial conditions tightened dramatically, yet the Federal Reserve remained stoic and non-committal.

Gold emerged as the performance leader, achieving its best week since March 2020 amid rising bond yields. Rate-cut expectations plummeted as bond volatility surged, indicating underlying stress in the market.

The dollar experienced its worst two-week drop since November 2022, while Bitcoin had its best week since early January, potentially entering a strong period if historical liquidity trends hold true.

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